The selected article by Bennell and Canter (2002) uses statistical models to link commercial burglaries by modus operandi to specific offenders. Data was collected from 86 commercial burglaries, already solved, and the 43 offenders that committed them. First the authors used logic regression analysis to determine behavioral traits which distinguished between linked and unliked crime pairs. Then, the receiver operating characteristic analysis, labeled each behavior feature with a percentage of predictive accuracy. As results suggest, certain features tend to demonstrate higher levels of predictive accuracy which highlight key consistencies in the behavior of the burglars, thus, their modus operandi. These important features, such as distance between locations, can be helpful in explaining criminal behavior and potentially predicting patterns for future crimes of burglaries that remain unsolved.
Regression analysis is a common statistical tool which is accurate and reliable, and it helps to sort out the variables which have an impact, and which do not. The authors were smart to use it as the initial stage, leading to emphasizing the probability of behaviors that were relevant to the case. Meanwhile, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis is a lesser-known test, which is meant to determine classification accuracy. In other words, it evaluates the accuracy of the statistical model, such as the logic regression used initially that classifies subjects into categories. The ROC curve allows to evaluate if the diagnostician made the correct decision for a particular feature or set of features as decision thresholds are varied from strict to lenient. It can be argued that the authors made the correct decisions with the statistical tests, as they helped to fulfill their objectives with is determining if initially available information of crimes can be used to provide a statistically significant basis of linking them to a common offender. The tests contribute to ensuring accuracy and validity of making these connections with appropriate statistical margins.
Reference
Bennell, C., & Canter, D. V. (2002). Linking commercial burglaries by modus operandi: Tests using regression and ROC analysis. Science & Justice, 42(3), 153–164. Web.