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Nate Silver is the owner of the FiveThirtyEight polling website in the US. Interesting, this website was accurate in predicting the outcome of the electoral vote and popular vote for all of the 50 states in the US during the 2012 presidential elections. This analytical treatise will present Silver’s views on the relevance of statistical tools. Besides, the treatise will review the significance of the FiveThirtyEight website.
The Signal and the Noise
The video is about Nate Silver discussing predictions of winners of the District of Columbia and the other 50 states during the 2012 presidential elections. Silver accurately made predictions between the popular vote and electoral vote. Silver argues that many predictions fail because of the approach and evidence. Also referred to as the secondary rationalization, Silver argues that the accuracy of a prediction is determined by the strategic profiling of the statistical variables involving players in the stages of the larger prediction.
Thus, the behavior and reliability of data will constitute the perfect results via backward induction of the main premise. Through backward induction of the numerous outcomes that are likely to occur within the prediction, the analyst is in a position to simultaneously eliminate branches consisting of noncredible moves identified during data verification.
After limited predictions, any rational opponent among the analysts will be automatically precluded from repeating the previous decision to ensure that no credible moves are eliminated. By choosing premise options that are likely to optimize the final accuracy level of each prediction, the finite horizon will be consisting of perfect statistical sampling of each of the variables. This may be achieved by extensive rationalization through statistical testing that is influenced by getting perfect information before the actual prediction. The series of finite predictions that are of extensive nature will eventually lead to a final prediction that represents perfect results when the statistical tool is relevant.
The authenticity of the predictions in the FiveThirtyEight
Despite having made several correct and nearly accurate predictions, the FiveThirtyEight website may negatively attract the interests of an analyst, especially on the premise and the process of developing the predictions. There are several methods of measuring the central tendency and validity of statistical data. It is important to develop the underlying rationale for the purpose of statistical uniformity.
The approach by Silver and his team may not give long term predictions that are correct since it considers the 50/50 and the 80/20 assumptions. Besides, in statistical analysis, it is healthy to appreciate the dynamics of numbers in different environments. The numbers may not present accurate focus when the same approach is used in more than one test.
Silver does not trust the accuracy of some of his predictions, despite depending on a vigorous statistical framework. He had to hire Mr. Pielke to manage the climate prediction analysis. Reflectively, it is impractical to make predictions base on just numbers. A good analysis must understand a subject, dynamics within the subject, and the rationale for certain inferences. It is not accurate to depend on mere numbers to draw sensible predictions. Therefore, this website cannot give equal credence since the impression of objectively is only driven by the data prognosticator. This was evident during the 2012 elections when some predictions were off the limit by a big margin.
Silver’s website is not authentic since the primary premise for deduction is base on just the numbers. These numbers may not represent the actual prediction in different subjects or statistical environments.