Introduction
Tourism is a significant contributor to the global GDP and comprises a substantial percentage of the GDP for Lebanon. However, this state has had a decline in the number of visitors in recent years that can be associated with peace and security problems. In comparison, Iceland, which has been a top-ranking state for peace, has had a steady improvement in its tourist industry. For governments that rely on foreign tourists that bring substantial governmental revenues, peace, as well as security, are essential because instability, war, protests, and other conflicts repel people from choosing this destination. Moreover, war combined with insecurity can destroy the tourism industry in a state. The research question explored in this paper is the influence of security on the tourism industry using the example of Lebanon and Iceland as two comparison states.
Initial Situation
Lebanon’s government relies on tourism as an important source of state revenue. Tourism accounted for 19% of Lebanon’s GDP in 2016 (Bankmed, 2017). This means that for Lebanon’s economy, including the income of the citizens and unemployment, the hospitality industry is vital. According to Ghadban et al. (2017), “Lebanon is a well-known tourism destination in the Mediterranean region” (p. 165). The climate and landscape of this state make it an attractive vacation destination and distinguish Lebanon from the neighboring states. Table 1 shows the contribution of the tourism industry to the economy of Lebanon. Based on this, one can conclude that the economy has not experienced significant growth since the revenue from 2018 was estimated at $8,7 million and from 2019 at $8,6 million (CEIC, 2021). However, it is possible that the civil conflict has a negative long-term effect on Lebanese tourism and economy because it has not been growing in years.
The civil conflict in Lebanon has been consistently and adversely affecting tourism. For example, in 2013, only 1.3 million people visited this state. This is a small amount, in comparison to its closest competitor—Turkey, which was visited by 31.9 million tourists in the same year (Ghadban et al., 2017). Moreover, Lebanon has had several substantial decreases in the number of visitors over the years, all connected to instability in this region. Figure 1 shows data from the World Bank (2019a), according to which the number of tourists has been increasing from 1996 until 2006, with another decline between 2010 and 2014. When compared to the events that might have affected this decline, one should note the protests that took place from 2006 till 2008, and after 2011 the state went into political unrest due to the Special Tribunal for Lebanon and the conflict in Syria (Hamadeh & Bassil, 2017). Thus, the data shows that Lebanon has had a decline in tourism rates that corresponds to political instability.
Problem
Tourism is an essential industry for any state because its contribution to the global economy is substantial. According to Ghadbam et al. (2017), tourism is the largest economic sector globally, and it employs the most significant number of people, and in 2013 it contributed to 9.5% of the global GDP. The intense political situation in Lebanon and its neighboring states had a negative effect on the inflow of tourists. Ghadbam et al. (2017) note that “the deterioration of the political and security situation in the Middle East since 2010, especially the Syrian crisis, has highly affected the flow of international visitors to the region in general and to Lebanon in particular” (p. 165). Tourism has a beneficial effect on the destination states because it stabilizes the local economy and allows the local businesses and citizens to obtain money brought by tourists.
Tourism is affected by the perceived safety of the destination. The number of people who decided to visit Lebanon has decreased by 50% between 2012 and 2013 (Ghadbam et al., 2017). Hence, locations such as Lebanon have declining tourism rates due to civil conflicts, while Iceland, as a peaceful state, sees an increase in the number of travelers. Thus, this paper aims to investigate the reasons that make peace with a security essential for governments relying on tourism for revenue and show that war or insecurity can destroy the local tourist industry.
Relevance of the Current Research
The tourism sector has suffered losses due to COVID-19 and restrictions by governments. Hence, this research contributes to the understanding of factors that aid tourists’ positive attitudes and their destination choice using two examples, Lebanon and Iceland. The findings can be used by business owners and state policymakers to help restore this industry after the pandemic. Moreover, since one of the countries from this research is also affected by the civil war, the findings will contribute to understanding how this factor impacts tourism.
Methodological Approach
The methodology of this paper is desk research, which implies an analysis of research studies and scholarly articles. Desk research allows us to collect data from studies and reliable sources, and by combining the findings, locating an answer to a research problem. In this case, 15 scholarly articles found through the library and Google Scholar database were analyzed. The keywords for the search included “security and tourism,” “war and tourism,” “tourism in Lebanon,” “tourism in Iceland.”
Tourism in Lebanon and Iceland
For states that economically rely on the tourism industry, having peace and security is essential for creating an image of a pleasant vacation destination. Asongu et al. (2019) refer to peace and security as “contemporary drivers of tourism” (p. 345). Tourism, in general, is affected by political stability, a number of violent crimes, and the presence of non-peaceful demonstrations, which means that for destinations such as Lebanon, the current political and social instability adversely affects tourism. However, Asongu et al. (2019) also report that the presence of the military, security officers, or other armed personnel do not impact the tourists visiting intentions significantly. Hence, one can conclude that tourists dedicate more attention to the violence and crimes that can potentially affect them during their visit, while the presence of the military does not impact their decisions.
Despite the fact that insecurity has obvious effects on the state’s attractiveness for tourists, there are some inconsistencies in this conclusion. Farmaki (2017) argues that previous studies on peace and tourism show inconsistent results. Moreover, tourism and the security of the state may have a reverse relationship as well. Farmaki (2017) states that tourism may play a role in reconciliation for a country. Hence, by supporting the tourism industry, the governments of states that experience instability may contribute to the improvement of the political and social environments of their states.
States that invest in security measures after an armed conflict have better results in terms of tourist visits. Okafor and Khalid (2021) state that “security spending cannot reverse the negative impact of armed conflict on international tourist flows in a destination country in a short period of time” (p. 385). However, these investments generate a return after approximately eight years (Okafor & Khalid, 2021). Hence, if Lebanon’s government were to increase its spending on security and the military, they would not see an immediate effect and addition to the number of visitors. However, after approximately eight years, the state’s tourism sector would be restored.
Lebanon’s Security Issues
Lebanon has experienced several events that threaten its image as a good tourist destination. The civil war in Lebanon began in the 1970s, followed by local protests, unrest, and military conflicts within this state and its neighboring countries (Chaddad, 2020). Notably, the consequences of it are typical for any civil war, including militia on the streets, clashes between various parties, and violence. These factors are contributing to the insecurity and lack of a peaceful environment in Lebanon.
The unrest in the region in general, including Syria, affects the security of Lebanon as well. According to Bassil et al. (2019), terrorist activity in one state affects the tourist visit not only in that country but in neighboring states as well. This comparison was made using the examples of Turkey, Israel, and Lebanon. Moreover, Bassil et al. (2019) state that “terrorism has a much larger negative impact on visitor arrivals to Lebanon” (p. 50). Hence, the civil war in this country is only one factor that impacts the perception of tourists and the view of it as a good vacation destination, while conflicts in neighboring states contribute to negative perceptions.
Despite the issues with domestic security, there are areas of Lebanon where tourists can be safe from political instability. Ghadbam et al. (2017) explore the possibility of developing rural tourism in this state as a countermeasure to other forms of tourism that suffered from security problems. Their findings suggest that marketing strategies can be developed to promote rural tourism in Lebanon, for example, for visitors from China. However, Faraj (2020) argues that in Lebanon, urban tourism is more popular. Hence, the niche of rural tourism in Lebanon is not explored sufficiently and can become a relief for the state’s industry if investors develop facilities and attractions for foreign and domestic visitors.
Iceland
The two comparisons used for this research paper are Lebanon and Iceland. The former has been in the state of war for 13 years, while the latter has ranked as number one in the 2020 Global Peace Index for several years (Institute for Economics & Peace, 2021). Table 2 shows the number of tourists who arrived in Iceland during 2016-2020. Notably, there was a significant decline due to coronavirus in 2020. However, previously, between 1.7 and 2.3 million people came to Iceland. Hence, this state shows stability in terms of tourism statistics.
Iceland is a politically and socially stable state, which contributes to its tourism. Figure 2 shows the number of individuals who have visited Iceland from 1996 until 2019, based on data from WorldBank. Based on this graph, one can conclude that there have not been any substantial declines, which suggests that there is a link between security in the state and its tourism industry’s growth.
The consistently large number of tourists visiting Iceland has had several implications on the state. Apart from the contribution to Iceland’s GDP, the concept of over-tourism emerged. Sæþórsdóttir et al. (2020) describe it as the adverse effects that a persistent presence of large quantities of tourists has on a destination. The application of over-tourism to the case of Iceland shows that the attractiveness of this state for visitors, attributed to political stability and security, is high. Moreover, according to Sæþórsdóttir et al. (2020), Iceland ranks as number 13 based on the ratio of tourists per inhabitant.
Iceland’s tourism industry is developed due to the peace in the state, with the only potential danger being natural hazards. For example, Bird and GĂsladĂłttirab (2020) state that “timely hazard warnings to residents in Iceland is a difficult task despite authorities being familiar with the at-risk population” (p. 101896). Since in this state, many tourist destinations are located near volcanoes, both tourists and local residents are endangered by the volcanic activity. Bird and GĂsladĂłttirab (2020) also note that their surveys indicate that tourists are unaware of the potential dangers they are facing when visiting Iceland, which is why the tourism industry is generally unaffected by this threat. However, the authors of this study still suggest the government of Iceland to improve their approach to communication of hazards to tourists and prevention measures. This study shows that as a tourist destination, Iceland is peaceful, with the only potential danger being natural hazards in the volcanic areas. Combined with the statistics above, this information supports the conclusion that social and political stability contribute to the tourism industry in a state.
Conclusion
Answer to the Research Question
This research paper aimed to explore the effect that security in the state has on tourist visits. The possible solution is to ensure that Lebanon enters a state of social and political stability, which will affect the tourism sector positively. However, as this research paper found, there is a relationship between peace and tourism, and investment in the latter can contribute to the security of the state. Another suggestion is to focus on marketing the regions of Lebanon where the civil war actions are not active and where tourists can be safe (Ghadban et al., 2017). When comparing Iceland and Lebanon, the former is undoubtedly safer. This affects the ratio of tourists per inhabitant and the number of visits to the country. Hence, it is best for Lebanon to invest in security and military presence (Okafor & Khalid, 2021). However, as this study shows, the return on this investment will not be immediate, and the state’s government will see the results after approximately eight years.
Overview
In summary, this research paper focuses on the issue of tourism in Lebanon and Iceland. These two states are examples of opposing political and social scenarios since Lebanon is in the state of civil war, while Iceland has gained awards as the most peaceful state. As this research paper found, threats, such as terrorism, not only in the destination state but also in neighboring countries, affect the tourists’ intentions to visit. The statistics explored in this paper show that Lebanon has had two severe tourism crises, which were attributed to civil unrest in the region.
References
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