Introduction
The discovery and use of nuclear weapons have radically changed the world and global relations. States possessing nuclear arms acquired a critical competitive advantage in global intercourse because of their devastating power. However, the high risk of disaster and nuclear war promoted the understanding of the necessity for limiting the further spread of nuclear weapons. The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons limited the number of states possessing nuclear explosive devices to control the situation and avoid disaster (Joyner, 2016). However, regardless of the existing regulations, some states continue their attempts to create their own atom bombs to resolve some of their problems in international policy. It might be a result of tensions in the region or military conflicts. For instance, India and Pakistan were suspected of possessing nuclear weapons. Today, the situation around Iran and the nuclear treaty associated with the state’s status acquired the top priority.
Iran has always been viewed as one of the major sources of instability in the region. The problem is complicated by the fact that in the 1970s, the state launched its program of developing nuclear technology (Joyner, 2016). After the Iranian Revolution, the fear of Iran’s acquiring nuclear weapons became more significant, and in 2007 the conflict became especially intense. As a result, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action emerged, or Iran nuclear deal (Joyner, 2016). It is designed to resolve tensions and restore peace in the region. However, Iran has complex relations with numerous states, including the UAE. For this reason, the nuclear treaty might have a significant impact on both countries. Under these conditions, the proposed research offers the following research questions:
- What are the impacts of the Iranian nuclear deal on the UAE’s security?
- What are the UAE’s options in case they sign the treaty?
- Will the deal bring the area to a nuclear arms race?
By answering these questions, it is possible to acquire an enhanced understanding of the current situation in the region, Iran-UAE relations, and the changes that might be associated with the nuclear deal. At the same time, the research questions are followed by the objectives:
- to analyze the main aspects of the Iranian nuclear deal.
- to investigate the major challenges linked to the deal.
- to determine its possible impacts on relations in the region.
- to analyze relations between the UAE and Iran.
- to determine the influence of the deal on UAE security.
- to outline the UAE’s options if the deal is signed.
- to evaluate the nuclear arms race regarding the Iranian deal.
The research questions and the objectives form the framework for analyzing the issue under research and promoting its better understanding.
Literature Review
The Iranian nuclear deal has critical importance for the region in particular and the nuclear arms race in general. The emergence of a new state possessing nuclear weapons in the region characterized by a high level of instability and military conflicts can lead to a global war with unpredicted results. (Baghat et al., 2017). For this reason, after several years of growing tensions and opposition between Iran and other states, the decision to stabilize the situation and start negotiations was accepted (Maklad, 2021). As a result, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or the Iran nuclear deal, was accepted (Mirza et al., 2022). It became a serious step towards regulating the situation in the region and guaranteeing the absence of new threats and conflicts in the future. However, the deal remains disputable because of numerous claims linked to security issues, failure to observe the major aspects of the deal, and third parties’ interests.
The UAE’s interest in the deal and high involvement in the process can be explained by specific and unresolved issues in relations between the state and Iran. Although the nations have established diplomatic relations, trade bonds, and diasporas living on their territories, there are tensions over some territories. Thus, UAE refuses to accept Iran’s sovereignty over two islands in the Persian Gulf: Lesser Tunb and Greater Tunb (Ulrichsen, 2017). The territories have been controlled by Iran since 1971 (Ulrichsen, 2017). Moreover, the UAE doubts Iran’s right to control Abu Musa, which became part of Iranian territories in 1971 (Ulrichsen, 2017). At the same time, Iran is unsatisfied with the UAE’s decision to allow France to establish its first permanent base in the Persian Gulf (Ulrichsen, 2017). The existence of these unresolved issues impacts relations between the two nations and might be viewed as the basis for potential conflict.
Under these conditions, Iran’s nuclear deal is a potentially important factor that might alter the balance of power in the region and transform existing relations. The Iranian nuclear program was viewed as an attempt to create a nuclear weapon. For this reason, following the major JCPOA terms, the state agreed to eliminate its stockpile of medium-enriched uranium, reduce its stockpile of low-enriched uranium by 98% and reduce the number of its gas centrifuges (Mirza et al., 2022). Iran should also enrich uranium only up to 3,67% (Mirza et al., 2022). From another hand, P5+1 partners will reduce the number of sanctions and restrictions introduced to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons (Mirza et al., 2022). In such a way, the deal can be viewed as an attempt to resolve the problem of potential nuclear threat in the region and restore stability by making Iran a reliable partner, which can be negotiated.
For the UAE, the Iranian nuclear deal is one of the critical factors impacting its security and future in the region. On the one hand, the state is interested in negotiations and the agreement as it will help avoid the conflict’s further aggravation and Iran’s acquiring nuclear weapons. At the same time, the UAE supported Obama’s administration efforts to constrain Iran’s nuclear program; however, it was excluded from the discussions about the impact of the deal on the region and the nation (Batmanghelidj, 2022). Furthermore, the UAE supported Trump’s decision to escape JCPOA and restore secondary sanctions because of the claims of non-observing the major terms (Batmanghelidj, 2022). It means that the UAE might be significantly impacted by the deal and views it as a possible threat to its security and future.
Thus, the threat of using nuclear weapons due to further escalation is one of the major concerns and backgrounds for negotiations. The situation in the Gulf Region can be compared to the India-Pakistan conflict. The two states also have a disputable territory serving as the source of numerous conflicts and skirmishes (Robock et al., 2019). Both India and Pakistan have claims over controlling Kashmir, which already resulted in three significant conflicts. The problem is complicated by the fact that there is a high risk of using nuclear weapons, as following the latest investigations, both nations have it and have the opportunity to deliver them (Robock et al., 2019). In such a way, the situation in the Gulf Region and in the East are similar and require negotiations to resolve the problem and meet the interests of all parties to the conflict (Robock et al., 2019). However, the existence of numerous issues complicates the process.
In such a way, the Iranian nuclear deal is an essential aspect of global and regional relations. The successful resolution of the problem might contribute to the stabilization of the situation and help to avoid the new wave of a nuclear arms race (Alisobhani, 2022). However, it might also introduce some new problems for the UAE. The elimination of sanctions might stimulate Iran’s economic development and make it a more powerful player in the region (Anggitta, 2017). The unresolved tensions between the two nations and the risks of violating the rules of the agreement by Iran might result in its acquiring nuclear weapons that might be used as a lever to press the UAE and make it introduce appropriate responses (Maklad, 2021). Under these conditions, it is vital to acquire an improved understanding of the theme and fill in the gap in knowledge of how it might affect Iran-UAE relations.
Methodology
The research questions formulated previously and the study’s objectives impact the choice of data collection and data analysis methods. The qualitative case study design implying the document analysis might be viewed as a beneficial approach to investigating the issue and making credible conclusions. The choice can be justified by several factors proving the method’s ability to collect and analyze the necessary information. First, the qualitative approach is effective in working with available data and making conclusions about a specific phenomenon under the research (Creswell & Creswell, 2018). At the same time, the case study approach allows considering the Iranian nuclear deal and its impact on the UAE as the case that should be analyzed. For this reason, it is possible to ensure its comprehensive investigation and analysis.
Furthermore, the document analysis methodology is explained by numerous documents regulating JCPOA, relations between two nations, and further perspectives. In such a way, by analyzing these primary data sources in terms of the literature review, it is possible to create the basis for the discussion and investigate the major aspects of the agreement, its possible impacts on the situation in the region, and the UAE’s perspectives in different scenarios (Creswell & Creswell, 2018). Additionally, the documents can be found on the Internet and analyzed to understand the current trends and the development of the situation in the future. For this reason, the given method might be effective in answering the formulated research questions.
The inductive research paradigm will support the selected methods. It implies collecting data relevant to the topic of interest and specific patterns helping to understand the phenomenon, and developing relevant theories and hypotheses using the results of these observations (Creswell & Creswell, 2018). Inductive reasoning is selected as it is vital to answer the formulated research questions employing information from credible sources. The conclusions and results will be formulated regarding the acquired data. It would help to create a complete and relevant image of Iran-UAE relations and the nuclear deal’s impact on them.
The interpretivist research philosophy will also be used to investigate the selected issue. It implies collecting and interpreting the acquired data to conclude how it shapes reality and people’s behaviors (Creswell & Creswell, 2018). Speaking about Iran’s nuclear deal, it is vital to understand the current situation, regulations impacting the cooperation between states in the region, and the possible impact on major decision-makers in the Gulf Region and the UAE. In such a way, the interpretive philosophy fits the research context and will help to evaluate and gather information and provide reliable findings.
Altogether, the qualitative observational case study implying that document analysis is viewed as a potent data collection and analysis tool. It will help to select credible documents and sources linked to the problem of the nuclear deal and relations between Iran and the UAE. At the same time, the interpretation of findings will promote a better understanding of the problem under research and help to conclude about how the resolution of the conflict or its aggravation might impact the situation in the region and relations between the states engaged in the case.
Conclusion
Altogether, the Iranian nuclear treaty remains one of the severe problems affecting the Gulf region. The risk of using a nuclear weapon to resolve some conflicts remains high, meaning it is critical to address the problem and acquire its enhanced understanding. This problem also impacts the relations between Iran and the UAE. The states have some unresolved territorial issues because of islands in the Gulf Region. It creates the basis for the opposition and aggravation of the situation. The UAE is interested in monitoring the situation and ensuring Iran will not acquire access to nuclear weapons. For this reason, it is critical to investigate the problem and conclude about the possible impacts on the region, relations between major parties, and the UAE’s options if the agreement is signed and starts acting.
References
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Anggitta, M. (2017). The future of the Iran nuclear deal: Pretty bright from its verification lens.International Journal of Nuclear Security, 3(1), 1-11.
Baghat, G., Ehteshami, A., & Quilliam, N. (2017). Security and bilateral issues between Iran and its Arab neighbours. In A. Ehteshami, N. Quilliam & G. Baghat (Eds.), Security and bilateral issues between Iran and its Arab neighbours (pp. 1-11). Palgrave McMillan.
Batmanghelidj, E. (2022). How the UAE will underwrite the Iran’s deal success.Bourse & Bazar.
Creswell, J., & Creswell, D. (2018). Research design: Qualitative, quantitative, and mixed methods approaches (5th ed.). SAGE Publications.
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Maklad, H. (2021). Security of the Middle East in light of the Iranian nuclear deal.Contemporary Arab Affairs, 14(2), 24–38.
Mirza, M., Abbas, H., & Qaisrani, I. (2022). The Iranian nuclear programme: Dynamics of Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), American unisolationism and European apprehensions.Journal of European Studies, 38(01), 14-32.
Robock, A., Toon, O., Bardeen, C., Xia, L., Kristensen, H., McKinzie, M., Peterson, R., Harrison, C., Lovenduski, N., & Turco, R. (2019). How an India-Pakistan nuclear war could start—and have global consequences. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 75(6), 273-279.
Ulrichsen, K. (2017). Iran-UAE relations. In A. Ehteshami, N. Quilliam & G. Baghat (Eds.), Security and bilateral issues between Iran and its Arab neighbors (pp. 211-229). Palgrave McMillan.