Introduction
Predicting the future seems to be a task beyond human strength, especially when it comes to foreseeing what will happen in the following twenty or fifty years. However, George Friedman, in his book The Next 100 Years, made an attempt to predict even a larger time span and imagine what the world would look like throughout the twenty-first century. The book has encountered controversial feedback since some readers criticized Friedman for going into science fiction when foreseeing events that might take place far in the future. Yet, in my opinion, this book has a much more important implication than simply providing details about who will dominate the world in this century and why the US should not regard China as its key enemy. I read this work from a leadership perspective, trying to make use of its arguments and ideas for my vocational context. After speculating on it, I concluded that the main implication of this book for leaders is that it is helpful to explore facts and past evidence in order to elicit patterns and make better decisions about the future.
Friedman’s Predictions
First, I will briefly mention Friedman’s predictions as to how the world would look like in the twenty-first century since it is what the whole book is all about. In his forecast, Friedman mainly draws on geopolitics, linking it to geography, demography, history, technology, and culture. He briefly overviews the major events of the twentieth century, dividing this period into twenty-year sections. By doing so, Friedman shows that people are often wrong in their assumptions about the future. They rely on common sense when assuming that some extraordinary events are unlikely or impossible to happen, but Friedman (2009) asserts that “when it comes to the future, the only thing one can be sure of is that common sense will be wrong” (p. 3). Therefore, basing one’s expectations about the future on what seems obvious and logical can catch one off guard and lead to deplorable consequences due to unpreparedness.
Friedman provides several illustrations of the inconsistency between people’s expectations based on common sense and reality. For example, in 1900, European countries were interdependent due to trade relationships; therefore, the majority of people did not expect war. Yet, World War I occurred, and Friedman says that, despite common expectations, it could be predicted based on Germany’s power and the necessity to claim its status in Europe. Thus, people fell victims to their short-sightedness and the inability to see the whole picture, which placed them in a vulnerable position since they were unprepared to circumstances that they failed to foresee.
Having observed the discrepancy between common sense expectations and real-life events, Friedman proceeds with making his own predictions about the future of the world by integrating geopolitics, history, and other sciences mentioned above. His analysis leads him to conclude that the US will dominate the world in the twenty-first century. He explains it by the country’s advantageous geographical location, its control over the oceans, and the weakening of other nations. Friedman is also confident that there will be powerful countries trying to oppose the US domination, and, in his opinion, these countries will be Turkey, Japan, and Poland, although he admits that this selection might be erroneous. By tracing demographic trends, Friedman concludes that the population explosion will soon end, and, in the future, developed countries will depend on migrant labor force to provide for their aging citizenry. This forecast seems to be quite logical and enables political leaders to understand what issues they have to focus on and what policies they have to consider to facilitate their transition into the future.
Implications for Leadership and the Vocational Context
Although at first sight, The Next 100 Years seems to be a book specialized in geopolitics since it explores different countries’ domestic and foreign policies, economic development, and their place in world history, it has particular implications for leaders in various fields. Perhaps, the primary argument of the book is that predictions are possible. Friedman (2009) explains the potentiality for forecasting by the illusion of free will: “If human beings can simply decide on what they want to do and then do it, then forecasting is impossible. Free will is beyond forecasting. But what is most interesting about humans is how unfree they are” (p. 252). It implies that people act according to the circumstances, which reduces the randomness from their actions and makes them follow a particular behavioral pattern. Friedman illustrates this by stating that, although people are free to have many children nowadays, they are unlikely to do so because raising children in the current circumstances is too costly and not economically reasonable.
The idea of people acting in response to consequences has a significant implication for leaders in general, and my vocational context in particular. As a manager of a retail store, I have a responsibility to make and receive orders and set prices, among other duties. To perform my work better, I can predict customers’ behavior in response to some external consequences. For example, if it is reported that the weather will be extremely unfavorable for several days and people are advised to stay at home, I can assume that customers will want to make larger purchases of essential products. Therefore, I can order greater amounts of products that are likely to be in demand these days, thus satisfying customer needs and increasing profits.
Another argument made in the book is that, even though predictions are possible, they should not rely on common sense. Friedman (2009) writes, “when we try to predict the future, common sense almost always betrays us—just look at the startling changes that took place throughout the twentieth century and try to imagine using common sense to anticipate those things. The most practical way to imagine the future is to question the expected” (p. 249). As Friedman demonstrates by his book, questioning one’s expectations implies a thorough analysis of context and factors that can directly or indirectly influence outcomes. Friedman (2009) performed such an analysis by searching for specific trends in the history to predict the geopolitical future: “Underneath the disorder of history, my task is to try to see the order—and to anticipate what events, trends, and technology that order will bring forth” (p. xiii). Thus, the author of The Next 100 Years suggests looking at the past to spot patterns and foresee the future.
Although predicting the future by the past seems to be a faulty idea since future outcomes are usually not defined by past events, it still can be useful in the vocational context. I think that the main point here is not that particular events that happened in the past are likely to occur in the future since it would be the wrong statement. Instead, I believe that Friedman invokes the audience to look for patterns and correlations that were evident in the past and try to project them onto the future. For example, as a retail store manager, I can track the sales volume of a specific commodity over time and notice whether there are seasonal changes in its sales. Based on these findings, I will be able to better predict the demand and manage orders more effectively. I may also spot tendencies in recruitment to identify if the number of applicants over the year has a systematic character. If it appears to be the case, I will be able to predict a decrease in the number of candidates and take measures beforehand to address this issue.
In his book, Friedman also pays much attention to strategy, especially grand strategies of various countries. In my opinion, he suitably characterized the major principle of strategic planning by a famous saying: “Hope for the best, plan for the worst” (Friedman, 2009, p. 69). I think that it is essential for a good leader to be prepared for unexpected consequences and be able to manage them. Regarding my vocational context, I can assume that the risk of my retail store being robbed is quite low. Nevertheless, I should be prepared for the worst, so I have to make sure that at least the staff is trained to handle such a situation and the security system of the store is functioning.
Conclusion
To sum up, Friedman’s The Next 100 Years is a good example of leadership literature. Focusing on geopolitics and history, Friedman managed to show how to analyze the past and spot changes in trends in order to predict the future. He demonstrated that common sense is often wrong when it comes to foreseeing oncoming events, so making forecasts should involve a more thorough analysis than simply expecting what seems obvious. The book has implications for leaders since the ability to make better predictions will enable them to lead people and organizations in the right direction.
Reference
Friedman, G. (2009). The next 100 years: A forecast for the 21st century. New York, NY: Doubleday.