The case of the severe toilet paper shortages during the coronavirus pandemic shows the powerful impact of a sudden imbalance created by supply chain disruptions. The total toilet paper consumption likely remained comparable to the pre-pandemic period. However, the spiking demand combined with insufficient supply stemming from the shipment delays resulted in empty shelves. The customers’ tendency to bulk-buy essential commodities in turbulent times is consistent, understandable, and thus unlikely to change. Therefore, Proctor & Gamble and other TP manufacturers should make their supply chains more resilient to disruptions and unexpectedly high demand.
This goal can be achieved through two logically connected steps. Most importantly, the TP manufacturers should break the manufacturing process down into smaller parts and analyze the costs and timings at each stage. The companies should understand how much time and funds take to purchase raw materials, manufacture goods, and arrange their subsequent packaging, storage, and delivery. The detailed knowledge would make possible forecasting and risk mitigation. Forecasting would allow a TP manufacturer to evaluate which parts of supply chains are more vulnerable and prepare accordingly. For instance, the need to stock up on virgin pulp to meet increased customer expectations would have become evident after the detailed manufacturing and distribution cycle analysis.
Consequently, TP manufacturers should diversify their supply and distribution chains in the aftermath of the pandemic. Potential restrictions imposed on international trade would likely lead to increased delivery times worldwide. As such, TP manufacturers should find domestic suppliers in order to compensate for the potential difficulties in receiving overseas shipments. In addition, the companies should provide the customers with an option of direct shipments. Selling TP directly to customers when possible would lower the pressure on retailers and maximize the number of deliveries. Lastly, manufacturers should remember the pandemic experience and prepare for the sudden shift to consumer-grade TP production. Forecasting would facilitate that process, as the companies now have the necessary data and can predict what would happen in case of another global crisis.