Introduction
On August 15, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called for early elections. This September election was an opportunistic move two years before the next election. As the leader of the Liberal Party, Trudeau has ruled with a majority of seats in the House of Commons since 2019 (Grenier, 2021). In the summer of 2021, the Liberal Party was doing well in the polls, and the call for the election was to try to translate that voting support into a majority government (Grenier, 2021). The context of the pandemic has made this election unique in Canada and a rare company worldwide. Almost a million Canadians voted by mail (20 times more than in the last election), and another 5.8 million voted early. 99.96% of the votes were counted, and the ultimate turnout was 61.98 percent. The election result also surprised many observers in Canada. Until the last days of the election campaign, polls showed that a Conservative victory was the most likely outcome (or that the election was too close to make predictions). Ultimately, Canadians gave the Liberals the most seats in parliament without a majority.
Discussion
During the election, the scandal around Prime Minister Justin a Trudeau resumed again, who announced on June 25, 2020, that the government had chosen WE Charity to manage Canada’s long-promised $912 million student service grant. The program would have provided up to $5,000 to young people who volunteer for COVID-19-related issues in the summer and fall (Hudson, 2021). However, there were complaints from the opposition parties that Trudeau’s family was affiliated with WE Charity. The Ethics Commissioner on July 3, 2020, announced an investigation into Trudeau and the government’s decision to have the charity run a summer student grant program that could help students financially during COVID-19 (Hudson, 2021). The Commission found that Trudeau’s family and cabinet members were improperly paid.
Polls during the election campaign showed that the difference between Liberals and Conservatives was two percentage points or less, which indicated a virtually equal national race. However, the distribution of votes by region gave the Liberals an advantage in counting seats — as it was in 2019 when the Liberals lost the popular vote but won more seats than the Conservatives. Until the last few days, many experts predicted the victory of the Conservative Party, which focused on more advanced healthcare spending, ethical rules in politics, and economic recovery (Tasker, 2021). On the other hand, the Liberal Party emphasized housing issues, environmental concerns, and improved childcare policies (Tasker, 2021). Ultimately, the election results were similar to the 2019 outcomes, not changing the political structure.
Moving to the 2025 federal election, the Liberal Party faces numerous concerns. The latest polls show that the Conservative Party has approximately a 5% lead; however, the advantage is not critical, and the new government is likely to last until 2025 (Bricker, 2022). The new leader of the Conservative Party, Pierre Poilievre, presents a real challenge due to the increased influence of the opposition and open criticism of Trudeau’s actions (Bricker, 2022). Moreover, as the research shows, a phenomenon known as an “insincere vote” might occur similar to elections of the past (Schimpf, 2019).
Conclusion
This concept means that when citizens feel that their preferred party is losing popularity, they might switch to the opposition even if they are not confident in its programs and initiatives (Schimpf, 2019). This factor might be detrimental to the Liberal Party in the 2025 federal election in case the Conservatives continue to attract more people.
References
Bricker, Darrell. “With Newly-Elected Poilievre at the Helm, Conservatives (35%, +1) Nudge Ahead of Liberals (30%, -3).” Ipsos, September 28. Web.
Grenier, Éric. “CBC News Canada Poll Tracker.” CBC, Web.
Hudson, Alexander. “A Snap Vote in the Pandemic Shows Canada as One of a Kind.” International IDEA, Web.
Schimpf, Christian. 2019. “Anticipated Election Result and Protest Voting: Why and When Canadian Voters Signal Discontent.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 52, no. 4: 847-863.
Tasker, John Paul. “Canadians have Re-elected a Liberal Minority Government.” CBC, Web.