Impact
The proliferation of nuclear weapons significantly increases the likelihood of accidents leading to large-scale conflicts between nuclear-armed states such as Russia, the United States, India, Pakistan, and China, among others. Taking into consideration the sheer size of the existing nuclear arsenals, both inadvertent and deliberate war between any of these nations could have disastrous effects on the population of the whole world. This paper argues that because nuclear war is associated with devastating humanitarian consequences, disarmament efforts must be supported by all world governments and societies.
Risk of Nuclear War
In their article titled “Analyzing and Reducing the Risks of Inadvertent Nuclear War Between the United States and Russia,” Barrett et al. explore the possibility of conflict between the United States and Russia (106). The authors argue that concerns about intentional attacks have led both countries to focus on developing counter-attack protocols rather than concentrating on deterrence capabilities (Barrett et al. 106). The findings of the study show that the annual probability of inadvertent war between the United States and Russia on a scale from 0 to 1 “ranges from 0.0001 to 0.05 if excluding launch during low tensions” (Barrett et al. 120). Therefore, it could be argued that despite substantial progress in minimizing the risks of nuclear war, the chances of inadvertent nuclear conflict between the two states are still high. As a result, it is necessary to further explore the impact of such conflicts in order to develop comprehensive strategies for risk reduction that go beyond de-alerting agreements. In fact, the issue of the proliferation and reduction of nuclear armaments is so pressing that President Obama has placed it at the top of the U.S. national security agenda, arguing that it is “a threat that rises above all others in urgency” (Allison 82).
Consequences
The last several decades have been marked by a significant expansion of the body of knowledge concerning the climatic consequences of nuclear war. Climatic models have helped demonstrate how nuclear weapons could completely destroy not only humans but also many other species. Interestingly enough, during the Manhattan Project and throughout the whole period of the Cold War, almost no research was done on the “dust, fire, and smoke effects of nuclear blasts” (Edwards 34). Two independent groups of scientists from Russia and the United States who have studied the consequences of nuclear war have reached the same conclusions: the northern hemisphere would see a drop in surface temperature below freezing within just a couple of days. The researchers have also argued that nuclear war would cover the globe in smoke, destroying agricultural production and bringing “severe consequences for humanity” (Edwards 36).
It is important to realize that even if the threat of a full-scale conflict between the United States and Russia that could result in a nuclear winter was somehow eliminated, the danger of nuclear war between states like India and Pakistan would remain. According to Robock and Toon, India and Pakistan have produced more than 50 nuclear warheads each (77). If the two countries were to release their nuclear arsenal on the biggest industrial areas, the smoke resulting from the blast would disrupt agriculture around the world for ten years (Robock and Toon 77). The researchers have also estimated that the explosion of 50 bombs in India would create four million metric tons of smoke particles, which could cover the surface of the globe in only 49 days (Robock and Toon 77). Another study suggests that a nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan could result in a ten to forty percent reduction in maize yields and a two to twenty percent reduction in soybean yields in the midwestern United States (Özdoğan et al. 373). These changes would occur due to the injection of a tremendous amount of elemental carbon into the troposphere, bringing about significant climatic anomalies (Özdoğan et al. 373).
A recent article titled “Long-term Radiation-Related Health Effects in a Unique Human Population: Lessons Learned from the Atomic Bomb Survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki” by Douple et al. summarizes the findings of a research study that lasted for 63 years (124). The study revealed that there is a significant correlation between radiation exposure and increased cancer mortalities among atomic bomb survivors in Japan (Douple et al. 127). Specifically, the scientists have found a relationship between exposure to radiation and the incidence of cancers of the oral cavity, esophagus, stomach, colon, liver, lung, nonmelanocytic skin, breasts, ovary, urinary bladder, and central nervous system (Douple et al. 128). Figure 1 shows radiation-associated deaths per year.
Conclusion
Taking into consideration the fact that numerous studies suggest that humanitarian consequences of even a small-scale regional conflict could be devastating, there is a high degree of certainty that no state in the world would be protected from the impact of nuclear war. Therefore, it is necessary to implement a nuclear weapon ban on a worldwide scale. Although many people argue that nuclear-armed states will be unwilling to give up their armaments, the strategic significance of the issue underlines the importance of overcoming resistance to disarmament. Indeed, in order to ensure international security, it is necessary to change the discourse on nuclear weapons.
Works Cited
Allison, Graham. “Nuclear Disorder: Surveying Atomic Threats.” Foreign Affairs, vol. 89, no. 1, 2010, pp. 74-85.
Barrett, Anthony, et al. “Analyzing and Reducing the Risks of Inadvertent Nuclear War Between the United States and Russia.” Science & Global Security, vol. 21, no. 2, 2013, pp. 106-133.
Douple, Evan, et al. “Long-term Radiation-Related Health Effects in a Unique Human Population: Lessons Learned from the Atomic Bomb Survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.” Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness, vol. 5, no. 1, 2011, pp. 121-133.
Edwards, Paul. “Entangled Histories: Climate Science and Nuclear Weapons Research.” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, vol. 68, no. 4, 2012, pp. 28-40.
Özdoğan, Mutlu, et al. “Impacts of a Nuclear War in South Asia on Soybean and Maize Production in the Midwest United States.” Climatic Change, vol. 116, no. 2, 2012, pp. 373-87.
Robock, Alan and Brian Toon. “Local Nuclear War, Global Suffering.” Scientific American, vol. 61, no. 12, 2011, pp. 74-81.