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Purpose and Problem
The purpose of this brief is to decide on the best operational approach that the 1st AD may adopt in its AO to perform stability operations as a part of the Joint Task Force – Phantom (JTF-P). The problem at and is developing the operational approach that would correspond to the desired end-state, the means available for achieving it, and local conditions. Solving the problem is essential for securing Atropian independence and sovereignty from existing and potential separatist and insurgent challenges and addressing the root causes of the failure of the Government of the Republic of Atropia (GoRA).
After the deterrence of Donovian aggression against Atropia failed, JTF-P and 1st AD as its part proceeded to successfully defend Atropian territory, destroy, capture, or expel Donovian forces, and seize WMD sites in southern Donovia. 1st AD is yet to establish a full-fledged demilitarized zone (DMZ) in the parts of southern Donovia adjustment to its AO. Low-intensity insurgency continues in the AO, primarily perpetrated by the BIlasuvar Freedom Brigade (BFB). Higher HQ’s intent is to assist GoRA in restoring order and reestablishing civil governance in the country’s northern provinces. The current mission of the 1st AD is to assist the Government of the Republic of Atropia (GoRA) to secure the population, provide humanitarian assistance, and reestablish local governance.
Facts Bearing on the Problem
The important facts bearing of the problem at hand are as follows. BFB insurgence operations are modeled after those of Hezbollah in Lebanon and, as such, rely heavily on foreign support. Donovian Commandos are still capable of providing this support from across the northern border, albeit on a smaller scale, due to the present absence of a tightly controlled DMZ in Southern Donovia. The foreign support is all the more important for the separatists as the local Bilasuvar population in Vetlia generally does not support separatist ideas. However, the BIlasuvar population of Erbadil is fervently nationalistic and will be vehemently opposed to any operations by the 1st AD. Atropian population in the AO generally supports GoRA, and Lezgins remain undecided but should not represent a threat provided their concerns are addressed.
Stability tasks that stand before the 1st AD are establishing civil security, providing support to civil control, restoring essential services, providing support to governance, and conducting security cooperation. Civil security, civil control, support to governance, and security cooperation are essential for promoting the image of GoRA as capable and caring and addressing the root causes of the initial state failure. Restoring essential services is also an important component of promoting a positive image of GoRA, provided that critical infrastructure will be secure from insurgent attacks that tend to focus on soft targets. Support for economic and infrastructure development is not listed as a stability task for the 1st AD since it is one of the tasks for which civilian agencies or organizations retain primary responsibility.
Ends, Ways, Means
The desired end-state is the full neutralization of anti-government elements in the AO, restoration of stability, and internal security in Vetlia, Erbadil, Agdash, and Hackzi. Reaching this end-state will allow 1st AD to fully transit stability and internal security to GoRA. The way to proceed is by establishing a tightly controlled DMZ in southern Donovia to cut foreign support for BFB and, thus, strike at its center of gravity, and maintain joint security operations with GoRA forces. The means to achieve the desired end-state are the forces of the 1st AD, GoRA units assigned to carry out joint operations, and US Government agencies, NGOs, and PVOs that may provide various aid.
Restated Mission Statement and Operational Approach
With the considerations listed above in mind, the operational approach to performing the mission of the 1st AD should be as follows. Establishing a tightened DMZ in southern Donovia is of paramount importance, as it allows striking at BFB’s center of gravity. The absence of foreign support will constrain the separatists on Erdabil and weaken them severely in Vetlia, where they have little local support. Upon cutting the foreign support for BFB, the 1st AD, in close cooperation with GoRA units, will carry anti-insurgency operations until the threat is eliminated. To avoid antagonizing the already hostile Bilasuvar population of Erbadil, 1st AD’s AO in the province should be limited to Atropian- and Lezgin-populated regions. GoRA forces should carry out operations in Bilasuvar-populated regions of Erdabil with indirect support from the 1st AD. Addressing the concerns of Atropian and the especially Lezgin population is also essential for ensuring internal security and successfully performing stability tasks.
An operational approach to 1st AD stability operations should focus on establishing DMZ in southern Donovia, neutralizing insurgent elements, carrying out joint operations with GoRA forces, and addressing Atropian and Lezgin concerns while avoiding antagonizing Bilasuvar population.