Liquefied Natural Gas Growth and Development Research Paper

Introduction

In 21^st century, energy has become one of the vital international political issues. The globe is witnessing multiple energy confronts, soaring energy prices, climate change, global resource competition and energy poverty. The emerging of new vibrant economies like Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRICs) have hastened and worsened the present energy trends.

India and China are emerging as new demand centres in the global energy system whereas Brazil and Russia have become as significant energy exporters. The global economy is still reliant on varied energy resources namely natural gas, coal, oil, which is known as fossil fuels. This is quite distressing as these resources are depletable, increasingly costly, geographically saturated and very polluting thereby resulting in global warming.

The existing substitutes for fossil fuels like biomass energy, nuclear energy, and hydro-power are highly contentious due to their negative risks or side-effects. Further, global energy demand is set to increase many fold in the ensuing decades, especially in the developing and emerging world.

It is estimated that global energy demand is likely to exceed by over fifty percent by 2030 and up to eighty percent of this increased demand will be catered by fossil fuels. (IEA 2007b). (Lesage, Graaf & Westphal 2010:2).

As we enter the 21^st century, traditional energy sources are shrinking slowly and intertwined issues of a steady increase in demand and constricted supply have compelled to new urge for “energy security” as both consumers and producers resist to manage costs, price, geopolitics and the environmental impacts.

These issues, matched with technological upgradation have kindled a historic surge in LNG projects around the globe with Qatar surfacing as the global leader in LNG liquefaction capacity. LNG production on the global level had increased from 2.1% to 2,819.4 Bcm (99.5 Tcf) in the year 2005.

Of late, there has been a considerable increase in gas production thanks to the advent of cutthroat competition that exists in customary power and gas markets coupled the lower prices. The advancement of technology has introduced combined –cycle gas turbine (CCGT) technology, which has facilitated the enhancement of the economics of generating power from gas.

CCGT technology has many advantages like with markedly higher operating efficiencies and lower capital costs, which have offered natural gas as a viable alternative over the coal which have higher emission features. (Tusiani & Shearer 2007:2).

This has resulted in the increase of the demand for LNG around the globe, and natural gas exports rose to 680 Bcm (24 Tcf) which represented about 9% in 2004, which symbolised about one-fourth of total global consumption. However, as on date, about 74% of these exports are being made through pipeline deliveries.

Out of aggregate of global natural gas consumption, LNG shares of about 6.6%. (Tusiani & Shearer 2007:2). The global fleet of LNG ships was estimated about 21,000 million deadweight tons symbolising an eight percent increase in just 3 years as of 2007 and this was about 2.4% of the aggregate of the global fleet.

This will probably kindle the growth for LNG in the North American market. In the coming two decades, it is estimated that global demand for this energy source will grow by 2.75%.

Further, during the past decade, the transport and production costs have been slashed by fifty percent and the cost of re-gasification and sea transport declined by a quarter and by a third respectively.

Major producers of LNG on an international level are Russia, US, UK, Canada, Indonesia and Algeria. Smaller producing nations are Latin America, Middle East and Asia as these nations are obtaining natural gas as a result of their oil production.(Branch 2007:65).

By 2030, Venezuela is predicted to emerge as a significant LNG supplier to Europe and North America. By 2030, Middle East, Central Asia, Russia and Australia are anticipated to become new exporters to China.

LNG supply from Russia is anticipated to grow less rapidly despite the fact of its vast resources since lion’s lion’s share of Russia’s gas reserves is technically arduous to extract and supply to market. According to IEA WEO 2006, Russia is also anticipated to start the export of gas to Asia well before 2030. (Alfdala, Reklaitis and EI-Halwagi 2010:34).

LNG imports by Taiwan have increased by 90% in January 2010 as compared to January 2009. According to Bureau of Energy Statistics, Taiwan imported about 691,000 tonnes of LNG during 2010 as compared to 469,000 tonnes of LNG imported during 2009.

It is to be observed that Taiwan is importing LNG from Malaysia, Indonesia and Qatar and two spot cargoes from Trinidad and Nigeria. (Lngunlimited, 5 March 2010:1).

About sixty four million American families use natural gas as fuel for their homes. If LNG supply is disrupted, it may affect the livelihood of millions of Americans. If more LNG imports are perused by USA, then it will have less pressure on the prices to be paid gas consumers in America. It will also minimise the impact and less pressure on energy prices on American consumers and industry. (www.lngfacts.com).

In view of the above, this research will critically offer an overview of the growing role of LNG in meeting the global energy demands in future and will investigate into whether LNG is the future energy of the world and critically conclude with findings that LNG is evolving into an international market driven commodity in future.

Due to the safe properties of LNG and due to strict adherence of codes, standards and guidelines applying to LNG, LNG industry is being considered as one of the safeties fuel in meeting the global energy demand in the near future. The flexibility offered by LNG demonstrates its ever increasing function in international energy trade.

There are presently 32 liquefaction plants in operation and about 51 LNG reception terminals in the world. Further, there has been plan for in pipeline for more than 70 LNG terminals and about 30 planned liquefaction expansions and plants all over the world.

According to experts from the BG group, global LNG production is set to increase from ” 175m tonnes per annum in 2008 to 275 m by 2011.” However, demand may surpass the supply between the years 2011 to 2015. EIA (Energy Information Agency) has predicted that U.S LNG imports would soar to 4.5 trillion cubic feet in 2030 from just 0.6 trillion cubic feet in 2005.

LNG globalisation can be symbolised from the orders for methane tankers which are soaring, and it is predicted that aggregate fleet of tanker is likely to increase by fifty-six percent in the next five years and is anticipated to soar by 7.5% per annum until 2015.

Thus, this research essay will critically examine in depth about the growing and evolving part that LNG will play in catering the globe’s energy needs in the near future.

Aim of the Study

• This research will critically evaluate the issues of globalization of LNG.
• This research will examine whether LNG will be an alternative fuel of the future replacing conventional fuels (fossil fuels).
• This research will critically examine the growing role of LNG in meeting the global energy demands in future.
• This research will investigate the escalating international trade of LNG spot contracts thereby replacing long-term contracts.

Literature Review

Of late, Qatar has emerged as a poignant global LNG supplier as the Qatar’s geographic position enables it to supply both for Asian markets and European markets at analogues’ costs while the U.S market also falls within the competitive accomplishment.

Many giant LNG projects have emerged on-stream during 2009-10 with major of them come under the group of flexible LNG and typically assigned for the United States and Europe market.

The recent global economic recession which affected badly both Europe and U.S.A has begun to make a brunt on global LNG demand. Though, there has been less appetite for LNG in Asia also due to global economic recession, China and India showed substantial interest in sourcing excess LNG available in the market.

Due to this, flexible LNG is possible to turn out to be a really global commodity, searching for markets where it can seize the best netback value. (Goldthau & Witte 2010:229).

Over the next few years, flexible LNG in abundant volumes will come into manufacturing and LNG will retort mainly to price signs, although customer relations and politics will also play a role in its ultimate destination. In U.S.A, The import of LNG has come down substantially due to development of shale gas.

As of date, among the three regional markets, U.S gas prices are now the lowest. Though, there is availability of shale gas in U.S.A, its cost will be too high. Thus, in the long run, both LNG and shale gas will be the main source of energy for U.S.A. (Goldthau & Witte 2010:232).

Price of LNG is influenced by U.S gas market and is normally priced against the Henry Hub index, with due regard to location differentials.

However, due to fast evolution of LNG spot market and the enhanced accessibility of shipping which not committal to long-run contracts has ended in an ever escalating globalisation of spot LNG prices again driven on the margin by U.S. market prices. Further, it is to be observed that majority of the globe’s long-run supply of LNG remains protected from competitive market elements.

Due to involvement of technical intricacies of the LNG business and its requirements of massive scale investments up front, the gas manufacturers, frequently involve the national oil company which seems to be engrossed in the manufacture and liquefaction phases and assume control of the LNG shipping, offering on a CIF basis or ex-ship basis.

This arrangement originated from the gas producers’ intention to have control over the LNG project’s flourishing accomplishment and to safeguard their upstream interests. Moreover, LNG buyers are gaining rights in LNG terminals in the aggressive markets thereby to have more control over the ultimate of sale of the gas. (Michael, Tusiani & Shearer 2007:76).

Since January 2006, as per EIA historic data, oil prices have stayed above $ 55 per barrel, and this has resulted in the enhanced demand for LNG. Further, the demand for LNG appears destined to increase inevitably as major consuming nations like U.K, U.S.A and Canada which actually witness irreversible slowdowns in their gas production.

Some critics have argued whether there is adequate gas reserves inconsonance with global demand. It is to be noted that at current level gas productions, there are adequate gas resources to last for at least seven decades from now where as it is estimated that current oil reserves will last for only 42 years from now.

For instance, despite North America holds not less than 5% of global gas stocks, it symbolises for about twenty-eight percent of global utilisation, whereas Middle East contains about 36% of global gas stocks but only consumes about just 10%. (Michael, Tusiani & Shearer 2007:27).

China has issued a white paper titled “The problem of Energy Security During the Period of High Oil Prices “ which discusses about the international competition for energy resources, which has escalated in 2007 and regional vie and competition has aggravated and obscured the international security issues.

China’s white paper also looks at energy security as part and parcel of globalisation drifts and thus viewed it as an international issue. (Amineh & Yang 2010:46).

Verified global gas reserves are marginally concentrated than oil reserves. The Middle East region and the Russia hold about 2/5 and 1/5 respectively of established global gas reserves respectively.

If the ongoing LNG projects are accomplished in time, the capacity of liquefaction and carrying of LNG would reach a volume of 214 million tons per annum. LNG offers a substitute to long- outdistance transport through pipelines and conveys more opportunities to supply since LNG cargoes can emanate from varied sources. The flexibility offered by LNG demonstrates its ever increasing function in international energy trade.

LNG globalisation can be symbolised from the orders for methane tankers which are soaring, and it is predicted that aggregate fleet of tanker is likely to increase by fifty-six percent in the next five years and is anticipated to soar by 7.5% per annum until 2015. Both the size of the gas tankers is growing and at the same time, they can cover more distances by travelling more than 7000 miles without any refuelling.

Globalisation of LNG market is on the cards. With the abnormal increase in LNG projects, there exists a vibrant competition between nations owning gas reserves that can be supplied as LNG. In order to compete with offers from Qatar, Australia has reduced its prices for its deliveries to China.

Sourcing gas from Qatar is considered to be of high cost to the Asian market as compared to supply of gas from Indonesia or Australia to these provinces. Further, if gulf nations want to penetrate into European market, they are likely to witness the competition from Trinidad and Nigeria. China is anticipated to import large quantum of LNG as its total gas consumption is expected to soar to about 66 billion m³ in 2010. (Geman 2009).

Major LNG Suppliers around the World

Qatar is in the process of making the Gulf into the globe’s largest centre for LNG market. Libya and Algeria are considering the natural gas production as their long –term economic interests. Oman LNG production capacity is estimated around 10 mt/y and its Qalhat LNG is said to have made sale arrangements with “National Offshore Oil Corporation of China”.

Algeria’s production capacity is around 17.6mt /y. Algerian government has set a mark of enhancing its natural gas production to 28.7 mt/y by the year 2012. Egypt’s major LNG manufacturers are namely Egyptian LNG (ELNG) and Spanish Egyptian Gas Company (Segas).

The global economic recession may act as a barrier for the growth plans of LNG industry as the economic slump is liable to end in a reduced aggregate of energy consumption and hence its brunt on the global LNG trade stays ambiguous.

Due to global economic recession, the gas prices in the globe’s two greatest market namely South Korea and Japan have declined drastically over the last half of 2009 from $ 20 per million Btu (British Thermal Units) in August 2009 to $ 9.15 /m Btu by December 2009”. Analogues’ decline was also witnessed in the fast developing economies like India and China but is likely to be recouped in the long run.

According to experts from BG group, universal LNG production is set to increase from about” 175m tonnes per annum in 2008 to 275 m by 2011.” However, demand may surpass the supply between the years 2011 to 2015. (Ford 2009:51).

In the last five years, global demand for LNG except North American market increased by 3% and the analogues demand growth is estimated for the succeeding five years with increasing demand anticipated from growing economies like India, China and Middle East, which are using gas as a substitute for the coal and oil and using the LNG for manufacturing power. (Alfadala, Reklaitis and El-Halwagi 2009:37).

Venezuela is expected to turn out to be an important LNG supplier to Europe and the North America in the coming years. During the projection period, China is expected to import LNG from Central Asia, Russia, the Middle East and Australia during the projection period.

Though Russia is having enormous LNG reserves, Russian supply is anticipated to grow less rapidly since much of the Russian gas is theoretically intricate to extract and has to cross many obstacles for transporting to market. However, Russia is also seen as another probable major supplier to Asian market before 2030.

Recently, Russia’s Gazprom announced its maiden entry into the North American markets. Further, by 2014, Gazprom is planning to supply LNG to Rabaska terminal, which is being constructed in Levis, Quebec.

According to experts, US LNG market is not a “demand-pull” market but is only a “supply-push” one. In this category of market, other parts when they need LNG will source heavily since they do not have a significant storage facility as US will attract LNG supplies when there is low demand.

Thus, according to Credit Suisse LNG report, U.S is able to attract LNG supplies, especially during the low demand time period and will absorb the world’s excess when there is no place to store it. While future shipments to the USA will basically rest on the relative price and demand around the world, the fundamental need for LNG in the US remains strong (Alfadala, Reklaitis and El-Halwagi 2009:35).

Future Market for LNG

LNG is outperforming as a best substitute for CNG. Considering the pipeline gas, LNG offers lower onboard storage weight, more consistent fuel quality, volume and lower pressure risk. Though LNG tanks are securely insulated, at times, there is a chance of heat transfer into the tanks which is obvious.

LNG operation has become more stringent than CNG as it is reported that there has been weathering limit fuel storage time onboard of the vessel and fuel vaporization.Thus , LNG fuel is more costly than compared to CNG even if the cost of compression work is taken into consideration with that of sourcing CNG. (U.S. Federal Transport Administration 1998:84).

Due to ardent supporters of global warming stiff opposition against use of fossil fuels, LNG become the most favourite fuel for power manufacturing industry. In near future, natural gas will also be used in fuel cells for automotive power and fuel cells energised by natural –gas-to –hydrogen technology could support an increasing percentage of automotive transport. (Downey, Morgan & Threet: 31).

In the near future, the increasing global needs of energy have to be met by producing more energy to cater for the demand but at the same time, restricting and even reducing greenhouse gas emissions. (Barden, Pepper & Aggarwal 2009: 55).Hence, reliability on coal and oil is going to be minimised and at the same time, it will place more emphasis on LNG consumption. (Weirauch 2007:21).

Thus, increased LNG business will make the distinct regional markets to be more integrated one since contract terms and pricing are more flexible. Though, environmental and safety issues will restrict the import optionality in certain markets, like that of USA, LNG is no doubt will become a significant component in the international fuel supply blend.

Thus, the vibrant in the evolving LNG markets will influence that LNG, will, indeed, become the fuel for the twenty-first Century. (Alfadala, Reklaitis and El-Halwagi 2009:41).

Experts are of the view that based on the current consumption pattern, LNG demand will be soaring to about 200 million MT/per annum in 2010. This increased demand for LNG will pave the way to the introduction of extra 161 new vessels into the international LNG carrier market from 2005 to 2010.

This will increase the LNG ship fleet to 336 at the end of the year 2010. This anticipated increase in the demand for LNG careers simply denotes the increase in the demand for gas.

Thus, the increase in the demand for LNG and as the same have to be transported from one end of the globe to the other end of the globe, this will result in the introduction of larger vessels of 145,000 m³ to 250,000 m³, which will reap the economies of scale and will enhance the profitability of the transporting company. (Ariweriokuma 2008:188).

However, there are also risks involved in the transportation business of LNG. A narration of accidents involving LNG carriers was given by Lakey and Thomas (1983). Further, there have been many instances of LNG spills on the decks of the LNG ships. (Wright 2006:11).

There have been many instances of lightning strikes followed by fires on LNG ships. However, these business risks are inherent in every business and this risk can be mitigated by availing insurance covers. Thus, LNG, will, indeed, become the global fuel for the twenty-first Century. (Alfadala, Reklaitis and El-Halwagi 2009:41).

Research Methodology

This chapter will aim to justify the methodological decisions taken and used to investigate this research problem, through the choice of research design, data collection method, measurement tools, sample and size. The objective is to match the most appropriate methodological approach to the problem, bearing in mind time frame restrictions and limited resources.

Many collections of published works, which deal with the recent ideas and debates of the globalisation of LNG will be examined, analysed and then deliberated. Some case study examples and evidence from across the world have also been widely discussed in this research. To support the theme and idea, this research has utilised the data’s published by the WEO, Credit Sussie on the subject to support its findings.

Research Philosophy

Research philosophy describes the way researcher think about the development of knowledge which affects the way researcher go about doing research. There are three types of research philosophies: positivism, Interpretivism and realism.

This research is based on mixtures of all these three philosophy but most of the part of this research follow realism approach as this recognise the importance of understanding people’s socially constructed interpretations, understand the social forces, structures and processes that influence and people’s view and behaviours.

As per positivists view, a data cannot be regarded as proven if it has not been tested empirically. Positivism has statements which can be analysed scientifically and it has no value assessment. (Saunders et al 2006).

According to Interpretive philosophy the reality of knowledge depends on understanding and interpretation and realities can differ across time and place. This philosophy action is not governed by discrete patterns of cause and effects but by rule that social actor use to interpret the world. But it is implicitly conservative because it ignores the possible structure of conflict in the society and the possible sources of social change.

Realism shares some philosophical aspect with positivism and it also recognises that people are not object to be studied in style of natural science. (Saunders et al 2006).

Research Approach

Research approaches can be classified into two categories: First one is inductive approach, in which we collect the data and develop theory as a result of analysis. Whereas deductive approach is another method in which we develop the theory and hypothesis and design research strategy to test hypothesis and another one. (Saunders et al 2006).

This research will use the deductive approach for this research as this approach focus on:

• Moving from data to principle
• The need to explain the causal relationship between the variables
• The collection of quantitative data
• The necessity to select samples of sufficient size in order to generalise conclusions. (Saunders et al 2006).

Research Strategies

This part o research deals with research strategy of collection of data and analysing method and how this study is going to handle constraints in this research based on the research questions and objectives. Although there are various research strategies, this research will follow experimental strategies because:

• It defines the theoretical hypothesis
• Selection of samples
• Use of dependent and independent variables
• Includes comparison
• Conduct pilot study
• Determine place, time and duration of the experiment (Saunders et al 2006).

Data Analysis

1. To find out the available data
2. To assess the available data
3. To corroborate the available data

Further, as referred earlier, this research will be using an empirical study approach as a main research tool for this research. An empirical study will explain the expansion of exhaustive intensive wisdom about a specific “study”. Further, an empirical study approach will help the research study has an extensive talent to forward answers to the questions like how, what and why. (Robson 2002).

Thus, empirical study methodology has been advocated as a constructive strategy if the goal is to develop a vast understanding of the background of the research and the processes being endorsed. Further empirical study methodology is a tremendously valuable style of investigation of existing theory. (Saunders et al 2006).

The past empirical research studies offer a great insight in to this research study and this research study has used mostly the past empirical studies to corroborate and vouch that LNG will be the future fuel for the globe and there is every possibility of the process of “globalisation of LNG “in the coming decades.

Past empirical studies like IEO WEO Report of 2006, EIA of U.S report, Credit Suisse LNG report, EIA International Energy Outlook 2008 will be used in this research study to corroborate the research hypothesis.

IEO WEO survey conducted in 2006 estimated the demand from North America and concluded that the supply of natural gas from indigenous sources in the North American region will not keep match over the estimation period and as a result, it identified that there will be a great demand for LNG in USA in the years ahead.

As per recent research study, the global LNG supply is expected to increase by forty-four percent from 2007 to 2010 and there will be back end load due to project implementation delays. Supply of LNG is anticipated to increase from 22.3 bcf/d in 2007 to 32.2 bcf/d by 2010. (Alfdala, Reklaitis and EI-Halwagi 2010:34).

According to Credit Suisse LNG report, there was a 3% increase in global demand for LNG (except North America) over the last five years and the identical demand growth is anticipated in the next five years with increased demand anticipated from India, China and the Middle East, which are likely to replace LNG in the place of oil and use more LNG for manufacturing of power. (Alfdala, Reklaitis and EI-Halwagi 2010:35).

EIA (Energy Information Agency) has predicted that U.S LNG imports would soar to 4.5 trillion cubic feet in 2030 from just 0.6 trillion cubic feet in 2005.

According to Credit Suisse LNG Report, U.S will buy LNG during the phases of low demand and will intake the global excess when there is a sluggish in demand. However, in the future also, U.S going to remain as a strong market for LNG forever. (Alfdala, Reklaitis and EI-Halwagi 2010:35).

Simon Cattle, Head of Supply and Trading of BP visualises that European LNG imports are likely to have about 100 percent increase in 2020 from the current level of over 170 billion m³ from 2010 levels, which are accounting for about 25% of the total European gas supply, and he anticipates that UK will surpass Spain as Europe’s largest LNG consumer and importer. (Lngunlimited, 5 March 2010:3).

According to the EIA International Energy Outlook 2008, global primary energy demand is estimated to soar by fifty percent between 2005 and 2030, and this will be greatly reliant on the magnitude of economic growth by then. The emerging Asian tigers namely India and China will be witnessing an abnormal economic growth due to globalisation.

Due to this fact, it is estimated that more than twenty-five percent of global energy demand will be coming from the Asian tigers namely India and China by 2030. On contrary, the share of U.S consumption of energy is likely to decline to 17% from that of 22% between 2005 and 2030.

As per the EIA International Energy Outlook 2008, world gas consumption is anticipated to increase for the phase 2005-2030 to 158 tcf in 2030 from 104 trillion cubic feet (tcf) in 2005. Further, gas import dependence is likely to soar substantially in all major consumer markets around the globe.

According to EIA IEO 2008, except in Southeast and East Asia where gas import dependence is already very high, gas import dependence is likely to soar considerably in all chief consumer markets. The import dependency of the China and the EU will soar about seventy percent of their domestic consumption by 2030. (Amineh & Yang 2010:4).

As per EIA IEO 2008, as of January 2008, Iran and Russia jointly hold about 43 % of global gas reserves. Though the Middle East has major gas resources, but it stays chiefly untapped. This is mainly due to intricacies or cost associated in developing these gas resources and supplying the same in the market.

Considering the international oil market, the global gas market can be said to be a regional one which comprised of Russian –European market, Asia and the North-American market.

Non-OECD Eurasia and Europe and the Middle East vouch for about forty percent of the international production of natural gas in the year 2005 and are anticipated to account for about forty-five percent of the increase in the global gas production between 2005 to 2030.

Further, OECD nations will lose their share of international production to 27% from that of 39%. Further, it is predicted that by the year 2030, supplies of gas for the global market will emanate from lesser nations than that of today due to some of the gas sources will dry up by then. (Amineh & Yang 2010:4).

GANTT chart for the Research Study

The above Gantt chart indicates the association between the project tasks, together with estimation of time for completion of research study for each section. The horizontal axis of Gantt chart exhibits the time at which each phase of the project will be completed and the vertical axis indicates the research activities to be accomplished. The blue bar shows the required start time and duration of the different phases of research activities.

Once the project is approved, the research project would be concentrating from 11^th October to 15^th November for the completion introduction, aim and objectives of the research study. From 2^nd December to 10^th December, research study will be concentrating on the literature review and Methodology. From 8^th January to 18^th January 2011, findings, conclusion and recommendation section will be completed. (Pyzdek 2004:42).

List of References

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