Introduction
The issue of insecurity has been a sensitive subject to the US government since the September 11 attacks. In this regard, preventing such detrimental occurrences is vital for the harmonious coexistence of the different individuals in the country and global peace in general.
Therefore, investigating the underlying issues that trigger acts of terrorism and general insecurity is significant for the management of security and fostering international peace. Additionally, analyzing various mechanisms of the security systems is essential for the development of conclusions that facilitate the understanding of the efforts put by the intelligence agencies such as the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) in dealing security threats (Richelson 2010, 124).
For this reason, developing a body of knowledge is necessary through conducting extensive research on the security issues affecting the US government. This paper will provide a description of how research on security matters affecting the US can be conducted to derive meaningful conclusions.
The research approach
Selecting an appropriate research method is essential for conducting an adequate research on security matters. This assertion holds because the nature of security issues takes a multidimensional perspective, thus resulting in the need for the analysis of the social, economic, and political aspects of the problem (Patton 2010, 215).
In this sense, research design that covers the different dimensions of the US security issues is necessary for the investigation to be meaningful to the parties involved. Therefore, employing qualitative research methods is appropriate for such a research problem.
A qualitative research method is an inquiry that analyzes data derived from verbal and behavioral expressions in natural settings (Silverman 2001, 82). Qualitative research enhances the capture of vital information regarding beliefs, feelings, values, and motivations behind certain behaviors that cannot be easily obtained through quantitative methods (Marshall and Rossman 2010, 120).
In this respect, the application of qualitative approaches to inquiry in security matters would consider the beliefs, values, feelings, and motivations behind acts of terrorism. Adopting a qualitative approach to investigate the US security issues ensures that the public is in a position to share what is important regarding its security concerns.
To the researcher, the adoption of qualitative methods implies that the identification of critical variables like religious beliefs, economic conditions, and political leadership is enhanced due to the better understanding of the research problem before its execution (Saller and Mutlu 2012, 210). Various qualitative approaches are applicable to the security research problem including historical analysis, ethnographic research, phenomenology, ethical inquiry, and case studies.
For instance, the ethnographic approach can be used in the research project to investigate a community associated with terrorism by identifying the goals of the inquiry then selecting a site before the establishment of rapport. Observations can then be made whereby field notes are written as data is collected (Packer 2011, 278). However, due to the ineffectiveness of ethnographic and observational techniques in security studies, the LAMP approach would be effective for this case.
Reasons for applying qualitative methods in the research project
Applying qualitative approaches in the investigation of the US security issues, which have been constantly under the management of agencies such as the DHS, is beneficial in several ways. Qualitative methods of research provide an in-depth analysis of the insecurity phenomena that has affected the US and the international community.
In this respect, the researcher would be in a position to utilize analytic strategies to get an extensive understanding of the insecurity research problem (Honig 2007, 710). Practical and invaluable information on security issues can be obtained through qualitative methods of research. This goal can be attained through the application of predictive techniques that enhance the foresight of insecurity events such as the September 11 terrorist attacks.
The intentions of the actors and their attitudes towards the detrimental effects of such attacks could be considered to gauge the extent of the implications. Similarly, suspects of terrorism could be investigated and their behavior evaluated to attain invaluable practical information on their beliefs, values, and motivation behind the heinous attacks (Clauser and Goldman 2008, 178).
Qualitative research methods are necessary for the identification of the structures existing in various agencies that have a bearing on security issues. Engaging agencies such as the DHS in focus group discussions and interviews would unmask the underlying matters that portray the interdependencies and values that the organization considers as necessary for the enhancement of security in the US.
Similarly, engaging in an in-depth analysis of the perceptions and objectives of the major actors would provide dependable data that indicates the interdependence of various structures that facilitate the execution of acts of terrorism (Dolnik 2013, 120). The application of qualitative methods of inquiry in intelligence issues enhances flexibility.
Qualitative approaches ensure that the limitations that exist in security variables are dealt with in a bid to obtain meaningful data (Schmid 2013, 633). In this respect, the analyst can specify the courses of action and frame the possible scenarios to predict the potential security events in a particular society. Therefore, determining the potential alternate events could enhance the predictive nature of the study on the underlying issues about security in the US.
Special Considerations
Conducting inquiries on security and intelligence problems requires special considerations for the attainment of a successful research process. Factors like the study base, research timeline, ethical issues, and reliability, and validity need to be considered for the research to be efficient. The study base represents the cohort group that the research will be focusing on (Shepherd 2012, 139).
In this case, the source population would be the individuals under the management of the DHS agency, individuals believed to possess reliable information about terrorism activities, humanitarian organizations, victims of the September 11 attacks, and any other relevant parties. In this regard, the study group for the proposed research project is broad in nature since the effects of the problem transcend the American society.
The research timeline employed in the qualitative approaches should be considered. This aspect implies that the qualitative data collection tools need to be framed within a particular span of time that covers the problem extensively (Patton 2014, 523). In a bid to understand the background of intelligence and security matters leading to the September 11 attacks, the qualitative methods would employ a historical approach before applying other methods such as interviews in the research process.
Ethical issues would be a matter of special consideration for the research project. An ethical inquiry would be conducted to comprehend ethical issues that surround the US security. Additionally, the research process would consider ethical issues, which are necessary for conducting a morally acceptable qualitative research.
This aspect would entail the power relations existing between the researcher and the respondents, privacy and confidentiality, consent, anonymity, and confidentiality (Josselson 2013, 107). In so doing, the research would be in line with the ethical standards, which are critical for researchers in their qualitative research undertakings regarding the intelligence and security aspects of the American society.
Limitations of the Research Approach
The qualitative approaches would be employed in the study including the use of predictive analysis that employs the Lockwood Analytical Method for Prediction (LAMP) process. Unlike other research methodologies, the LAMP approach is not limited in its approach due to its sophisticated nature and strong affiliation to the intelligence community.
The approach mitigates the challenge with alternate future concerning exponential explosions. The approach prevents room for ambiguity in its procedures, thus enhancing certainty. However, the approach cannot quantify the probability of a future occurrence as it can only provide the prediction of the most likely future events.
Measurement of variables
The nature of the study that would be conducted entails the analysis of the cause, effect, and intervening variables. The research would identify the effects of insecurity in the US and then identify the cause before establishing the relationship between the two aspects that make up the dependent and independent variables respectively.
In this case, the intervening variables would define the link between the cause and effect variables. Therefore, measuring the dependent, independent, and intervening variables would be essential for the facilitation of objectivity, reliability, and validity of the research findings. The measurement of variables like individual behavior, attitudes, and security policies would employ the use of measurement scales such as nominal, ordinal, interval, and ratio scales (Saller and Mutlu 2012, 178).
Collection and assessment of data
The data collection and analysis phase in the study is vital for obtaining valid and reliable results that would be used to make conclusions pertaining the intelligence issue in the US. Since the traditional methods of predicting future events concerning intelligence have experienced shortcomings, the use of the LAMP method would be appropriate in this case.
The LAMP approach is an innovative method that was created by Dr. Jonathan Lockwood in the 1990s. The methodology is vital in this regard since it incorporates sophisticated planning and analytical procedures that consider empirical data in determining future events in the Intelligence sector (Lockwood 2013, 27).
In the case of this study, the LAMP approach would enhance the forecasting of possible threats that would be faced by the US Intelligence departments in a bid to work towards the curtailment of the problem. Issues like possible terrorist attacks by extremists like the Al Qaeda, cyber-attacks, and nuclear weapons issues would be managed through the collection and analysis of empirical data on security aspects.
In this study, the assessment and prediction of future intelligence would not focus on probabilities, but on presumptions that trigger future events. Therefore, the LAMP approach presumes that various parties act based on their rationality. In this sense, the consideration of qualitative techniques in the assessment of human behavior regarding security matters is essential.
Additionally, it would be indispensable to understand that the actors have the freedom to choose what is best for their country considering its safety and move towards prosperity. The following twelve steps involved in the LAMP process would be effective in facilitating security and Intelligence issues affecting the US.
The first step in the analysis of the qualitative data would be the determination of the predictive issue. Defining the issue is a vital step in the LAMP methodology since it facilitates the consideration of various actors, their courses of action, and implications for the future.
Specifying the national actors involved in the US intelligence system would be the next step in the application of the LAMP methodology. In this phase, the researcher determines the national actors that have a bearing on the problem. In this regard, the US and the terrorists’ state agencies would be considered. Limiting the scope is essential in this step, and thus five actors are sufficient.
Carrying out a thorough study of the perceptions of the national actors and their intentions constitutes the third step in the LAMP process. The analyst endeavors in historical research at this step to determine the implications of the past for the current and the future (Prunckun 2014, 67).
The fourth step in the LAMP approach is the specification of the possible courses of action for the various actors in the intelligence fraternity. This move enhances the prediction of forthcoming events on security issues concerning the US intelligence case (Beebe and Pherson 2014, 122).
The fifth step involves the determination of the scenarios that surround the comparison of the alternate futures. This aspect would facilitate the analysis since it focuses on the determination of assumptions that trigger the activities of the national actors involved (Lockwood 2013, 56). The sixth step would be calculating the number of alternate futures with respect to the scenarios.
The formula for the calculation is “XY=Z whereby X is the number of courses of action, Y is the number of actors, and Z represents the comparable number of alternate futures” (Lockwood 2013, 58). The seventh step in the LAMP approach is the comparison of alternate futures in a pairwise manner. In this phase, two alternate futures are compared to determine their probability.
The eighth step entails ranking the alternate futures depending on the number of votes garnered by each scenario from the lowest to the highest. An analysis of the impacts of each alternate future characterizes the ninth step in the LAMP process whereby the analyst postulates the “future history”.
Subsequently, the tenth step would entail the determination of the current “focal events”, which are responsible for the occurrence of the alternate future. The last step in the LAMP process entails the development of statements that focus on the potentiality of the transposition of a particular alternate future into another. The possibility of the implications of an alternative future to transpose into another should be considered since it can interfere with the prediction of future security events in the US (Lockwood 2013, 57-65).
Conclusion
Addressing insecurity issues in the US and the international community requires in-depth research to address the issue comprehensively. In this case, the research problem takes the qualitative approach that employs the sophisticated analytical method through the LAMP process.
Limitations such as subjectivity issues can be dealt with by applying professional skills that uphold objectivity, which is facilitated by the LAMP procedures that would be used in the research methodology. The measurement of variables in this research would emphasize the aspects of reliability and validity in the prediction of the alternate future.
The twelve steps involved in the LAMP process are significant for the effective analysis of the problems encountered by the US intelligence, thus enhancing the predictive nature of the study. Therefore, findings from the study on the US security and international intelligence would result in meaningful conclusions.
Reference List
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