Macroeconomic Policy About Population Growth Report (Assessment)

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Introduction

After the World War II, the new institutions such as World Bank and IMF were established so as to foster globalization. This in turn led to reduction of poverty, creation of industries, job creation, increase in economic growth, and improved living standards.

This resulted in an increase in population and reduction in infant mortality rate. In 1960’s and 1970’s countries started to embrace globalization which in turn gave rise to international trade (Mishkin, Giavazzi, Srinivasan, & International Monetary Fund., 2000).

The degree at which countries embraced globalization differed. This led to disparities in the rate of economic growth and population growth rates. Generally, there was an overall increase in population in many parts of the world.

Comparison of population growth and economic growth

Below is a list of twenty developing countries whose population growth was high in the 1960s and 1970s and remained quite high at the beginning of the current century;

CountriesPopulation growth rate (%)GDP per capita
Afghanistan3.85$700
Bangladesh1.57$1,900
Brazil1.13$7,600
Cambodia1.7$1,700
Costa Rica1.32$9,000
Ecuador1.44$3,300
Ethiopia3.19$700
Gaza strip3.2$600
Honduras1.89$2,600
Iran1.25$7,000
Jordan0.98$4,300
Lebanon1.05$4,800
Nepal1.6$1,400
Niger3.64$800
Pakistan1.57$2,100
Philippines1.9$4,600
Venezuela1.49$4,800
Vietnam1.08$2,500
Zimbabwe4.31$1,900
Indonesia1.15$3,200

Graph of population growth rate vs GDP per capita.

Factors that led to an increase in population growth

The increase in population growth could be attributed to a number of factors. One of these factors includes reduction in child mortality rate. The emergence of comprehensive health care schemes led to a sharp decline in child mortality rates. Some life threatening infections such as malaria became significantly suppressed.

As economy became vibrant, there was need to increase human labor and this led to sustained increase in population growth rates in some developing countries. There was also an emergence of industries which demanded human labor (Mishkin & National Bureau of Economic Research., 2008).

During 1960’s and 1970’s, many African countries experienced increase in population. This is because children were regarded as a source of prestige by many communities.

In the Muslim dominated parts of North Africa, there were increased imperialism as the Muslims tried to expand their religion. The need to have an adequate number of soldiers led to increase in birth rates. Muslim women were highly protected so as to give healthy babies who would later become soldiers.

Increase in the rate of social ills such as child marriage also contributed significantly in the population growth. This resulted in early marriages and drop out from schools. This problem was more pronounced in Africa and South East Asia.

In the middle of the 21st century, Latin America experienced population explosion due to declining death rates as well as increase in birth rates. The population growth rate was growing at a faster rate than any other part of the world with the exception of Africa.

The population of Mexico almost doubled during the period 1960 and 1990 raising a lot of concern in the Latin America. The potential effect of rapid population growth on the economic development was also of a major concern.

In the early 21st century, food sufficiency also boosted population growth rate. The emergence of new technologies made agricultural activities more efficient, reliable and profitable. New production methods and machinery led to an increase in agricultural productivity.

As a result of this, people became healthier as malnutrition reduced significantly. This was a sharp contrast from the earlier period which was characterized by severe hunger and high child mortality rates (Loh, 1976).

Below is a list of twenty developing countries whose population growth was high in the 1960’s and 1970’s and declined at the beginning of the 21st century;

Population growth rate (%)GDP per capita
Argentina1$11,200
Armenia0.06$3,900
Burma1.08$1,900
Chile0.84$9,900
Haiti0.79$1,600
Iceland0.69$30,900
Jamaica0.73$3,800
Maldives-0.15$3,900
Palau0.58$9,000
Singapore0.82$23,700
South Africa-0.38$10,700
Sri Lanka0.93$3,700
Syria0.91$3,300
Thailand0.57$7,400
Tunisia0.98$6,900
Uruguay0.23$12,600
Macau0.88$19,400
Saint Lucia0.39$5,400
Botswana1.66$8,800
Morocco1.07$4,000

Graph of population growth rate vs GDP per capita. - part 2.

Since 1960’s, the rate of birth has been on a sharp decline in the developing countries as a result of various economic and demographic factors. Research carried by various organizations such as World Bank shows that, low incomes are highly associated with high birth rates.

Research also shows that there were varied reasons attributed to low fertility rates in the developing countries but most of them were associated with human growth and economic growth. One of these reasons includes parents’ preference for smaller families when their health conditions get better.

Various researches show that, healthy parents tend to have low reliance on their children to take care of them at old age or even to work on their farms. On the contrary parents with poor health conditions prefer to have many children who will take care of them at old age.

The world fertility rate declined from 4.5% during 1960-1965 to 3.3% during 1990-1995. In Sub-Saharan Africa in 1993 the fertility rate was 6.4 which remain the highest in the world. Women in Sub- Saharan Africa had 6.4 children which was significantly larger from the other parts of the world.

Women in industrialized countries had 1.8 children while their counterparts in Middle East and North Africa had 4.9 children in their productive health. The fertility rates were also low at South Asia, Latin America and Caribbean, and South East Asia with recorded figures of; 4.2, 3.0 and 2.5 respectively. Factors that led to a reduction in population growth rate

The decline in population growth can be attributed to a number of factors which includes: culture, economical and social factors. In order to curb population explosion, countries engaged in reproductive health campaigns. This created public awareness relating to the need to control human population.

Deliberate efforts were made by a majority of developing countries so as to come up with policy frameworks to deal with human population. Various Countries came up with clear guidelines on the optimum birth rates.

In the early 21st century many countries started family planning initiatives. During this period there was increased awareness on the dangers which are likely to be caused by the population explosion. There were already clear indications of the possibility of future strain on resources and increase in social ills.

As a result of this, many countries started family planning programs which almost became a world norm. In fact, some countries set special task forces to spearhead the family planning programs. Some of the human population control techniques which became more common during this period include use of contraceptives and abortion (Wan & Shimomura, 2007).

Increase in industrialization led to massive job creation. People got more involved in economic activities and therefore had little time to engage in social activities. Several researches showed that unemployment was one of the major causes of high population growth during the early 21st century. This is because poor people had relatively higher birth rates than their rich counterparts.

High incidence of disease (HIV-AIDS) and emigration due to political oppression in many parts of the Africa led to a massive decline in population growth. Until, late 1960’s many African countries were under colonial rule. Some countries such as Namibia and South Africa got independence very late.

Apartheid rule by the colonial masters deteriorated the living standards of the subjects and this in turn reduced population growth. The effects of forced labor greatly saw the population decline drastically.

In many parts of the developed countries there were discovery of precious minerals such as copper and oil. This led to emergence of many industries such as steel and copper industries. There was job creation which consequently improved people’s standards of living. Many worked got involved in economic activities and this reduced time utilized in social activities.

Levels of illiteracy were still very high. Education was not well embraced by many developing countries. Schools were sparsely populated in many parts of the developing countries. These lowered peoples’ standards of living and child mortality rate became high.

During the period 1960’s and 1970’s, diseases were very rampant in many parts of the world. The health care systems were undeveloped and in some countries they were non-existent.

Diseases such as Malaria, smallpox, plague, cholera and tuberculosis caused increase in death rates. Leprosy which was quite a dreadful disease was also a common disease in most African countries. Lack of proper health care systems led to an increase in death rate and low fertility rate.

During the early 21st century, there was a significant increase in HIV/AIDS. Very few people were aware of this dreadful infection and therefore the death rate increased dramatically. In fact, in some countries especially in Africa, were totally unable to control HIV/AIDs because of lack technical expertise (Kiyawa, 2000).

In other cases, the stigma associated with HIV/ AIDs led to the abandonment of those affected and this led to a significant decrease in birth rate and hence reduction in population growth.

The emergence of civil organizations, led to women empowerment. As a result of this, women became aware of their rights and consequently became more vigilant to agitate for more representations in various leadership positions.

This was a sharp contrast from the earlier period whereby women were regarded as inferior and their role considered as merely pro-creation in nature. As more women got engaged actively in economic activities, there was little time left to engage in social activities and therefore the birth rate decreased drastically.

Due to the increase in industrialization, the environment got adversely affected, leading to a strain in the resources. Various researches show that the increase in industrialization had a significant contribution in air pollution and this adversely affected the climate. As a result of this, agricultural activities suffered a massive blow with production declining steadily year after another.

During the early 21st century, the highest population growth rate was observed in Africa followed by Latin America and lowest in South East Asia. Although the death rate increased in developing countries, the birth rate surpassed it leading to an increase in population growth.

For the last five decades, the total world population increased more than ever before and more rapidly than it was estimated to grow in future. In the year 1960, the world population stood at 2.5 billion and in the early 21st century, the population rose to about 6.5 billion.

During the period between the year 2000 and 2005, the average population growth rate stood at 1.2 percent which caused an increase in world population by 78 million. A large proportion of world’s total population growth came from countries in Africa, South Asia, and Latin America.

A smaller proportion of world’s total population growth came from countries in Europe including Russia, Estonia, Hungary, and Ukraine. Low population growth rates were also recorded in more developed countries of North America including Japan.

Conclusion

Although the increase in population growth rate hampered economic growth in some countries, research showed it also resulted in increase in productivity which in turn led to enhanced economic growth.

The improvement in economic conditions significantly enhanced peoples’ living standards and consequently lead to a sharp decline in death rates. However, maintenance of a sustainable population size is of critical importance so as to ensure a balanced mix of benefits resulting from a huge population size and the side effects associated with the same.

The rural to urban migration was also very rampant during the period 1960’s and 1970’s. Many people moved away from their homes to seek for employment in urban areas. Industries were concentrated in urban areas and therefore job opportunities were more in those areas.

References

Kiyawa, I. A. (2000). Africa, population control, and the world economic system. Zaria, Nigeria: Ahmadu Bello University Press.

Loh, M. (1976). The causes of population growth and its socio-economic implications : with some reference to Singapore. Singapore: Singapore Family Planning & Population Board, National Family Planning Centre.

Mishkin, F. S., Giavazzi, F., Srinivasan, T. N., & International Monetary Fund. (2000). External evaluation of IMF economic research activities : report. Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund.

Mishkin, F. S., & National Bureau of Economic Research. (2008). . NBER working paper series working paper 13948. Web.

Wan, H. Y., & Shimomura, K. j. (2007). Globalization and economic development in East Asia : lecture notes of Professor Henry Y Wan Jr. Kobe, Japan: Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration, Kobe University.

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