Oxford et al. attempt to document the history of the 1918 influenza pandemic, which caused 40 million deaths. They try to determine its origin, postulating that, rather than Spain that gives the condition its alternate name, “Spanish flu,” it is likely in another European nation. To support their point, they evaluate the incidence of bronchitis outbreaks in France and England as well as overall mortality from the condition. They find that, while it is not possible to confirm whether they were caused by the same virus as the large pandemic, that was likely the case. Moreover, in 1916, they detect a peak in influenza mortality, which could be used as a warning sign of an impending large-scale outbreak. The authors conclude that the First World War contributed to the pandemic’s slow emergence through restricted travel and warn that China is not necessarily the sole potential point of origin for a future pandemic.
Despite the authors’ caution, COVID-19 was first detected in a Chinese city, and the nation is generally considered the location where the virus came into existence. It also spread much faster, enabled by modern technologies and the ubiquity of travel compared to the beginning of the 20th century. With that said, there were still warning signs several months before most governments took measures to combat the disease. Governments and private entities have employed various surveillance measures, such as contact tracing, to attempt to curb the spread of the virus and monitor its development. However, they have proven largely ineffective, and the virus spread throughout most nations and regions on the planet, becoming extremely challenging to manage. This outcome highlights the inadequacy of current pandemic management systems in most nations and the need to share and process information constantly in search of early warnings.