The recent course taken by Dubai authorities to equip Dubai Governmental Buildings with smart systems led to a series of debates among the industry experts. This scenario investigates potential positive implications of smart building systems, including the incorporation of smart lighting, smart security and monitoring, technology, and smart water systems. The geographical scope will be limited by the Dubai area in the timeframe of the next 5 years from the moment this paper was submitted. This project is guided from the perspective of UAE Vision 2021, fueled by such trends as sustainability, AI systems, and 3D technology. For a more comprehensive evaluation, main social drivers, along with investment strategies, were taken into consideration. The scenario stands current in the light of recent global events, in particular, the Coronavirus pandemic. Special attention is given to the oil/gas market, as well as a USD dollar value. Thorough STEEP Analysis along the four annexes of uncertainty suggests that smart systems can be successfully integrated into ¼ of Dubai Governmental Buildings.
Signals
Main drivers
The first major factor justifying the likelihood of the positive scenario is demographics. As of 2016, the population in Dubai grew by 15% due to the increased demand for global talent in the construction area (Ree & Kim, 2019). Instead of focusing on heavy labor, the city promotes innovative thinking and knowledge, attracting international workers. The second main driver is the strategic vision of Dubai 2021 to create a major technological shipping and aviation hub in the city, maximizing territorial efficiency and energy optimization (Ree & Kim, 2019). The final key factor is growing governmental investments in the infrastructure to optimize energy resources, providing easy access to data.
Trends
The three main trends guiding the scenario are sustainability, 3-D printing, and AI systems. In terms of sustainability, governmental buildings in Dubai will be equipped with smart systems to be energy efficient. The visibility will be maximized with the natural light and digitally sculpted overhangs located above the windows. In regards to 3D printing, Dubai announced its intent to make ¼ of the city’s new buildings with the help of 3D printers by 2025 (Ree & Kim, 2019). This trend goes hand in hand with the vision declared by the Prime minister of the UAE, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum (Ree & Kim, 2019). Talking about AI systems, 25% of all new construction buildings were pushed to be equipped with innovative artificial intelligence programs to promote accessibility, transparency, and ethicality in the industry (Ree & Kim, 2019). Incorporated in sustainable cities, AI systems enhanced the transition to renewable energy sources, supporting the national initiative of responsive building systems.
Weak Signals
Some of the weak signals that potentially may lead to emerging problems in the future include an accelerated cycle of demographic growth. While Dubai proclaimed a course on minimizing the number of skyscrapers, social advocates raise doubts about the city’s capability to accommodate a growing number of residents (Ree & Kim, 2019). This concern remains valid for the governmental institutions, as well, with the increasing percentage of public officials. The recent outbreak of COVID-19 also shook the stability of the oil and gas market, as the prices for the two valuable natural resources continue rising while the value of the USD dollar is expected to plummet. Such changes in the international arena cannot be left unnoticed, raising questions regarding the applicability of Vision 2025.
STEEP Analysis
Social
From the social perspective, smart systems can be incorporated in the Dubai Governmental Buildings as a response to the consumer’s demand for sustainable life. Such a step supports the facilitation of the societal ability to manage the usage of the energy sources. UAE residents repeatedly requested uninterruptible power installation in all the public institutions (Ree & Kim, 2019). As a result, ¼ of the governmental buildings will be tested per their success rate in the pilot regime, initiating energy conversations for customers seeking to live a more environmentally-friendly life.
Technology
In the technological dimension, smart systems will be used as a security and monitoring solution. Significant capital will be inverted to develop the new security and monitoring technologies, as well as improve the existing ones (Ree & Kim, 2019). The outdated devices consuming high energy levels will be replaced. With the technological advances, there is an expected decrease in the workforce as ½ of the technical workforce will retire by 2030.
Economy
With the integration of smart systems solutions, Dubai City will experience improved reliability with a lower time of outage duration/frequency. Both labor costs and system losses will go down, substituted by asset management and better systems planning (Ree & Kim, 2019). Less money will be spent on the non-labor maintenance of governmental buildings. Examples include damage, insurance, and heavy machinery used before the smart systems. Revenue generated based on governmental buildings will be more protected as smart systems provide better billing accuracy and detection of fraud (Ree & Kim, 2019). In line with the revenue protection, the economic side looks promising for the deferral of large capital projects, providing a more flexible system of requirements.
Environment
From the environmental perspective, smart systems will be incorporated as a source of the light solution. In the Dubai Governmental buildings, the emphasis is put on sustainability. Minimized direct solar heating will lead to the reduced need for air conditioning and lighting. Together with smart water systems, the buildings will be 100% responsive to LED lighting, cooling, and low-energy air conditioning (Ree & Kim, 2019). Such innovations will result in decreased greenhouse emissions, supporting the lowered cost of Kyoto Compliance. As a part of the Dubai 2021 Vision, the city will benefit from the generation of renewable energy users.
Politics
Integration of smart systems in governmental buildings will also affect the political dimension. Such a decision can be assessed as a response to the governmental mandates, further supported by major political conglomerates such as the Netherlands, Sweden, UK, US, and others (Ree & Kim, 2019). Smart security and monitoring systems installed in the official buildings will also enable national objectives for lower rates of theft and fraud in governmental institutions.
Axes of Uncertainty
The scope of this assignment does not allow for the in-depth discussion of axes of uncertainty. Therefore, the focus of this section will be on the major drivers only. An accelerated cycle of demographic growth falls under the low certainty and low impact category. The growth rate at which the population increases in Dubai is too slow to expect an effect on the smart systems in the next 5 years. Unlike demographics, the strategic vision of Dubai 2021 is categorized as high certainty and high impact. Already in action, the guidelines of the UAE strategy will be fully realized by the year 2025, contributing to the extension of smart systems in the city. Governmental investments in the infrastructure stand as high certainty but low impact mainly due to the little correlation with the operation of the governmental building.
Reference
Ree, J. J., & Kim, K. (2019). Smart grid R&D planning based on patent analysis.
Sustainability, 11 (2907), pp. 119-143. Web.