Syrian Conflict and Its Effect on the Power Balance Proposal

Purpose Statement

Since the Syrian uprising of 2011, there has been growing international attention to the ongoing conflict¹. Based on the history of western and Arab conflicts, it is unsurprising that many western nations and some Middle Eastern powers have conveniently taken hardline positions on the conflict. Notably, the US, UK, France and Israel have taken hardline stands against the Syrian regime by demanding that it should step aside amid growing accusations of human rights violations².

However, there has been opposition to this stance from certain eastern and Middle Eastern powers such as China, Russia and Iran against a western plot to oust Assad’s regime³. For example, China and Russia have vetoed western demands to impose economic sanctions against Syria, after citing concerns that such measures would amount to foreign interventions. Certain pro-western nations like Israel have however harbored historic differences with Syria and their positions are informed by such developments⁴.

Considering the ongoing developments in Syria, there is a strong need to understand how the conflict affects the region because there are already several conflicting interests in the crisis. Mainly, the central focus of this study will be given to understand how the Syrian conflict affects the tilt in power balance between western nations and its Middle Eastern allies (and foes alike).

The Syrian government for example has been accused by some of its western accusers that it condones terrorism, indirectly⁵. In addition, the US has had strained relationships with the Middle eastern country because it accuses the Syrian regime of offering political support to terrorist groups while Israel accuses the Syrian regime of supporting terror gangs that intend to launch terror attacks in Israel⁶.

Indeed, it is highly likely that if the Syrian government is deposed, there will be gains and losses to be incurred by different countries (depending on how they currently relate with the Syrian government)⁷.

Based on the fact that the Syrian conflict may blow up to be an all-out civil war, important lessons can be learned from this situation. Through the understanding that the Syrian conflict may have far-reaching implications on peace-efforts in the Middle East, existing diplomatic relations between the west and the east and the ongoing war on terror, the findings of this study will expose the underlying interests among all the nations concerned and the prevailing issues between the Arab world and the western peninsular.

Finally and most importantly, this paper will give us a deeper understanding of the nature of conflict and its ability to affect other nations (or alter existing diplomatic relations, not only in the affected countries but also other nations as well).

Therefore, from the articulate description of the dynamics surrounding this research topic, this paper seeks to expose not only the current situation in Syria but also the rarely-mentioned diplomatic interests that surround the conflict. Since the topic will rely on diverse information and views surrounding the Syrian conflict, insights will be sought from independent and professional sources.

In addition, through the ‘international’ nature of the research topic, there will be no reference to a specific location for undertaking the study. However, to gain a more dynamic and comprehensive understanding of the research topic, virtual inquisition will be relied on. This strategy will ensure the collection of divergent views regarding the research topic⁸.

Statement of the Problem

Like most independent observers state, the Syrian crisis is more than just an internal affair because of the several interests that surround it. Since the conflict started, there have been many accusations and counter accusations regarding the role of other countries in the conflict.

Recently, the Syrian government claimed that the US was partly responsible for supporting rebel groups in the country while the US, UK and some of its western allies have claimed that Syria is being militarily equipped by some of its Islamic allies to suppress the revolt⁹. Arms support goes against international protocol that warns countries against supporting regimes that are accused of committing human rights violations¹⁰.

From the developments in Syria, there have been grave concerns expressed by some Arab counties (such as Iraq) that the Syrian crisis may herald the onset of a sectarian revolution within their borders¹¹. These accusations, fears and counter accusations have largely characterized peace negotiations in Syria but to a large extent, they fail to expose the real diplomatic imbalance that the ongoing conflict potentially holds.

Already, powerful western nations have been prevented from imposing sanctions on Syria because of the close ties Syria has with Russia, China and Iran¹².

Regardless of the tilt in outcomes, there is going to be a resultant regional impact in the Middle East. For example, on one hand, does it mean that if the Assan regime is ousted, Israel and its western counterparts will have a stronger control of Middle East and its politics? Similarly, does it mean that if the Assan regime holds on to power there will be more instability in the Middle East and western interests will be in more danger? Does it also mean that Iran will be winning its diplomatic war against the West if Assan remains in power?

Regardless of the outcomes, there is going to be a significant impact on international politics and more importantly, the stability of the Middle Eastern region. However, this paper will focus more on the regional impact realized if the Syrian conflict blows out into a civil conflict. Undoubtedly, many countries will be affected by such an eventuality. Comprehensively, the objectives of this paper are as follows:

• To investigate Israel’s interests in the conflict and whether it stands to benefit (or not) from the collapse of Syria
• To evaluate the possibilities of a change in relationship between Iran and Syria if Assan’s regime is deposed
• To find out if there is a risk of destabilization in Jordan, Iraq and Lebanon if Syria goes into a civil strife

Research Design and Instrumentation

Research Design

This research will be qualitative in nature. The use of the qualitative research design is preferred because this research methodology is flexible and supports the inclusion of case study research information¹³.

Data Collection

The major mode of research data to be used in this study will be secondary research data. The secondary data information will be obtained from books, journals, government reports, directories and other credible sources of information.

Widespread consultations of professionals who have knowledge about the politics of the Middle East and the potential impact of the Syrian conflict on international politics and regional stability will also constitute another data source. These professionals will be sourced using the convenient sampling technique and they will be interviewed using online questionnaires. Mainly, their input will be aimed at complementing the information obtained from secondary data sources.

Data Analysis

The Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) technique will be the main data analysis tool. This technique will be used for its easy predictability of the research information so that it can be easy to make smarter decisions when formulating the paper’s findings¹⁴. Complementarily, to analyze the sourced data, graphs and tables will be used.

However, progressively, these data analysis tools will be used to evaluate historical underpinnings and the current situation in Syria. As a statistical application tool, this study will categorize research data into descriptive, exploratory and confirmatory research data, so that hypotheses can be easily developed.

Bibliography

Alcaro, Riccardo. Re-thinking Western Policies in Light of the Arab Uprisings. Roma: Edizioni. Nuova Cultura, 2012.

Bickerton, Ian. The Arab-Israeli Conflict: A History. London: Reaktion Books, 2009.

Council on Foreign Relations. The New Arab Revolt: What Happened, What It Means, and What Comes Next . London: Council on Foreign Relations, 2011.

Filiu, Jean-Pierre. The Arab Revolution: Ten Lessons from the Democratic Uprising. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2011.

Gelvin, James. The Arab Uprisings: What Everyone Needs to Know. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2012.

Geneva Academy of International Humanitarian Law and Human Rights. “Syria: Current Conflicts.” Web.

Hamilton, Douglas. “Annan says Iran must be player in Syria crisis talks”. Web.

Maxwell, Joseph. Qualitative Research Design: An Interactive Approach. London: SAGE, 2005.

Moubayed, Sami. Syria and the USA: Washington’s Relations With Damascus from Wilson to Eisenhower. New York: I.B.Tauris, 2012.

Petrick, Nicole. Current Questionnaire Generation Tools – a Market and Product Overview. New York: GRIN Verlag, 2009.

Salaheddin, Sinan. “Iraq says al-Qaida fighters flowing into Syria.” Web.

Schmitt, Eric. “C.I.A. Said To Aid In Steering Arms To Syrian Opposition.” Web.

Sharp, Jeremy. Syria: Background and U. S. Relations. New York: DIANE Publishing, 2010.

Stevens, James. Applied Multivariate Statistics for the Social Sciences. London: Routledge, 2002.

Footnotes

¹ Riccardo Alcaro, Re-thinking Western Policies in Light of the Arab Uprisings (Roma: Edizioni. Nuova Cultura, 2012), 77.

² Jean-Pierre Filiu, The Arab Revolution: Ten Lessons from the Democratic Uprising (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2011), 66.

³ Geneva Academy of International Humanitarian Law and Human Rights, “Syria: Current Conflicts”.

⁴ Ian Bickerton, The Arab-Israeli Conflict: A History (London: Reaktion Books, 2009), 33.

⁵ Council on Foreign Relations. The New Arab Revolt: What Happened, What It Means, and What Comes Next (London: Council on Foreign Relations, 2011).

⁶ Jeremy Sharp, Syria: Background and U. S. Relations (New York: DIANE Publishing, 2010), 1.

⁷ Sami Moubayed, Syria and the USA: Washington’s Relations with Damascus from Wilson to Eisenhower (New York: I.B.Tauris, 2012).

⁸ Nicole Petrick, Current Questionnaire Generation Tools – a Market and Product Overview (New York: GRIN Verlag, 2009), 4.

⁹ James Gelvin, The Arab Uprisings: What Everyone Needs to Know (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2012), 117.

¹⁰ Eric Schmitt, “C.I.A. Said To Aid In Steering Arms To Syrian Opposition”.

¹¹ Sinan Salaheddin, “Iraq says al-Qaida fighters flowing into Syria”.

¹² Douglas Hamilton, “Annan says Iran must be player in Syria crisis talks”.

¹³ Maxwell Joseph, Qualitative Research Design: An Interactive Approach (London: SAGE, 2005), 70.

¹⁴ Stevens James, Applied Multivariate Statistics for the Social Sciences (London: Routledge, 2002), 24.