Introduction
The presence of a global dominant force within the present-day politics and economy is undeniable. Specifically, the fact that the U.S., China, and Russia have been at the forefront of the global political and economic relationships, as well as the presence of an evident conflict between the specified three parties, must be recognized. For the UAE, the described political and economic tensions suggest that the national security may be jeopardized to a significant extent once the UAE government publicly announces its allegiance to one of the parties involved in the conflict. Given the high risks associated with the military attacks from Russia and China, as well as the likelihood of economic sanctions from the U.S., strategic hedging, which is a neutrality-based model of behavior emphasizing flexibility, position diversification, and the avoidance of taking sides in conflicts, represents the best strategy for the UAE.
Due to the tensions between the U.S., Russia, and China, as well as the established frameworks for collaboration between the UAE and the specified countries, significant risks for the UAE are expected. Specifically, the combined effect the described conflict will suggests the development of a threat to the UAE on a military level, particularly, from Russia and China. Similarly, in case of collaboration with the alter two, economic fines and sanctions from the U.S. are expected. Therefore, hedging, as a strategy that allows keeping neutrality and thus maintaining collaborative relationships with diverse powers experiencing conflicts, represents the best choice for the UAE to navigate the current threats.
Background
In order to embrace the full extent of the threat to the UAE’s national security that the current conflict between the U.S., Russia, and China suggests, one should consider some of the aspects of the UAE economic and political life in the global context. Specifically, setting the stage for the analysis of the threat and, particularly, its scale, one ought to recognize the fact that the U.S., Russia, and China have been dominating the global market for a while, having built robust economic structures and frameworks that have been tied to most of the world’s countries. Therefore, with the escalation of the conflict in question, a major disruption of global supply chains and the resulting threat of a nationwide disaster for the UAE, specifically, its economy, is to be expected.
The described risk represents a major national security concern due to the immediately adverse effect that it will have on the UAE citizens. In order to remain capable and competitive in the current political environment, it is strongly recommended for the UAE as a state of as smaller scale to continue the policy of non-interference. Specifically, it is vital for the UAE and its leaders to retain their neutral strategy in regard to business-related and political interactions with the countries caught in a conflict.
However, the approach based on maintaining neutrality might be imperfect for the UAE in the long term. Specifically, the focus on neutrality may lead to the further aggravation of the conflict and the exacerbation of the issue. Namely, with the UAE entangled into the confrontation, the problem is going to grow consistently and uncontrollably, leading to even greater concerns. Therefore, the approach that will allow the UAE to maneuver between the parties of the conflict while retaining its consistency in its foreign policy approach is required. More importantly, the incorporation of strategic hedging principles into the current approach for managing IR used by the UAE authorities will minimize the risks of UAE losing its current status of an economically advanced country or failing to manage its financial resources in the manner that allows the UAE to ensure that its citizens remain satisfied and provided with the required range and amount of resources.
At the same time, the mutual influence that the countries in question have on one another must not be subtracted from the equation. The specified factor should also be considered in conjunction with the undeniable evidence of significant progress in the relationships between the U.S and Russia, as well as the U.S. and China, over the past several decades. Specifically, the existing evidence proves that the extent of collaboration between the U.S. and Russia has progressed significantly since the Cold War due to the recognition of the damages that it caused. Indeed, despite certain animosity between the parties in question caused by the incongruences between their philosophies and values, the general direction of the interaction s between the U.S. and Russia has been geared toward collaboration.
At the same time, the current political situation has recently complicated substantially due to Russia’s military strategy and its effort to establish economic hegemony. Specifically, Sutter confirms that “The two countries work separately and together to complicate and curb U.S. power and influence in the political, economic, and security domains.” The described trend can be considered as favorable for the UAE given its current need to maintain economic collaboration with both countries.
Analysis
The UAE should consider reinforcing its national security given the unhealthy trend in the development of the relations between the U.S. and Russia, as well as the U.S. and China. Specifically, the presence of evident dependency on the economic support of the U.S., as well as the established supply chain infrastructures between the UAE and Russia, as well as the UAE and China, a careful strategy is required. It is vital to keep in mind that the UAE has a limited range of resources and opportunities compared to the economic and political juggernauts that the U.S., China, and Russia currently represent. Consequently, from the standpoint of the IR Realism theory, a rational perspective on the issue at hand is required.
Furthermore, providing vocal support for either side of the current political conflict could be detrimental to the UAE’s national security. The UAE’s size and scale must be accounted for in this analysis. Compared to the U.S., China, and Russia, the UAE can be regarded as fairly small geographically, politically, and economically. Therefore, making a definitive choice regarding the current options does not seem to be supportive of the UAE’s political and economic viability. Archer et al. warn that the fate of states that are deemed as small in regard to their physical borders, economic impact, and political influence is substantially complicated.
Ensuring that the UAE is not affected by the eventual outcomes of the conflict must be considered as a vital addition to the current policy. Namely, maintaining neutrality may turn out to be a losing strategy in the long run, which is why the use of alternative approaches ought to be incorporated into the current range of strategies. For instance, the UAE can introduce the principles of strategic hedging into its political context. Defined as the strategy that “seeks to reduce the potential risk in relation to regional powers without confronting either of them,” the proposed solution will allow the UAE to secure its citizens and well-being.
Thus, the integration of strategic hedging represents an alternative solution that is likely to function as a means of securing the UAE from economic risks associated with the current situation. Without a sufficiently effective approach to addressing the current political and economic concerns associated with the actions taken by the Russian government and the Chinese authorities, the UAE is likely to face major economic issues. Namely, as a relatively small state that does not seek global dominance, the UAE will require substantial support in order to maintain its influence and political practices.
The integration of hedging strategies into the UAE’s international relations strategies is highly advised as the most promising strategy for the country. As opposed to soft and hard balancing, the hedging strategy would not run counter to the UAE’s non-interference principles or emphasize national security risks for the country, making it the best approach to incorporate. Defined as the process of setting specific conditions and limitations, hedging implies the development of restrictions for specific economic activities. The described approach is particularly important for the UAE presently since it will help the country address complications caused by the necessity to reduce the extent of collaboration with Russia and China. The described approach will cause the UAE to embrace the full extent of issues that further the need to support the U.S. specifically and abandon collaboration with Russia and China entails.
Despite being the optimal approach for the UAE to navigate the current international crisis, hedging might still involve certain challenges. Maintaining political ambiguity in one’s opinions and state policy might be met with significant disagreement. Therefore, the UAE needs to be prepared for an increase in hostility due to its unwillingness to select a definitive position and support either participant in the conflict. With the specified principles of political relativism in mind, the UAE will be able to thrive in the economic setting that can be described as rather challenging due to the presence of a military confrontation.
Conclusion
Due to the trade-related connections and a robust framework of international relations between the UAE, Russia, and China, the increasing development of tensions between the U.S., China, and Russia creates a potential threat to the UAE’s national security, and hedging represents the best strategic choice for the UAE in these circumstances. The increased exposure to possible negative responses from Russia and China must be taken into consideration as a major threat. Similarly, the probability of economic sanctions imposed on the UAE by the U.S. and the EU will create a hostile and challenging environment for the UAE, both politically and economically. In a situation with multiple potential threats from diverse political actors, resorting to hedging and maintaining neutrality when it comes to conflicts between its foreign allies will be beneficial for the UAE.
Based on the tenets of realism in international relations, the core suggestions regarding possible changes to be made to the UAE international relations framework involve the focus on reinforcing military and economic security of the state. Specifically, from a political perspective, the UAE should consider using the support of the EU and the U.S., which implies exploring the options of enhancing the current political relationships with the EU and the U.S. Similarly, as a smaller country with a limited political and economic impact, the UAE should avoid severing ties with Russia and China since the two remain essential constituents of the current global IR power dynamics. From the considerations of neutrality, the UAE’s strategy should be geared toward collaborating with the U.S. and the EU, while avoiding abandoning the relationships with Russia and China completely. The specified compromise will help avoid escalating the current political conflict, while offering a viable approach to managing IR issues.
Bibliography
Archer, Clive, Alyson Bailes, Anders Wivel. Small States and International Security. Europe and Beyond, Milton Park. New York, NY: Taylor & Francis. 2014.
Cannon, Brendon. “The Middle East and the Quad Plus.” Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs 3, no. 5 (2020): 269-284.
Fulton, Jonathan. “Domestic politics as fuel for China’s maritime silk road initiative: The case of the Gulf monarchies.” Journal of Contemporary China 29.122 (2020): 175-190.
Jacuch, A Andrzej. “Protocooperation as a Model for the Russia-UAE Partnership.” Polish Pol. Sci. YB 50 (2021), 105.
Mason, Robert. “Challenged Hegemony: The United States, China, and Russia in the Persian Gulf by Steve A. Yetiv and Katerina Oskarsson.” The Middle East Journal 72, no. 3 (2018): 529-530.
Mastanduno, Michael. “Partner politics: Russia, China, and the challenge of extending US hegemony after the Cold War.” Security Studies 28, no. 3 (2019): 479-504.
Minakova, Irina, et al. “The USA, Russia and China as a Center of Influence in Global Economy.” SHS Web of Conferences, 92 (2021): 1-8. Web.
Orenstein, Mitchell A., and Bojan Bugarič. “Work, family, fatherland: The political economy of populism in central and Eastern Europe.” Journal of European Public Policy 29, no. 2 (2022): 176-195.
Repucci, Sarah. “The Leaderless Struggle for democracy.” Journal of Democracy 31.2 (2020): 137-151.
Samour, Ahmed, M. Mine Baskaya, and Turgut Tursoy. “The Impact of Financial Development and FDI on Renewable Energy in the UAE: A Path towards Sustainable Development.” Sustainability 14, no. 3 (2022): 1208.
Sutter, Robert. “How the United States influences Russia-China Relations.” EEAS Europa. Web.
Vaicekauskaitė, Ž. M. (2017). Security strategies of small states in a changing world. Journal on Baltic Security, 3, 7-15.