Introduction
The evolution of human society can be linked to the emergence and development of new technologies. They promote revolutionary changes in the most important human activities and mark the beginning of a new era. Ancient Egypt’s technologies enabled its people to build a sophisticated irrigation system, become one of the most powerful civilizations, and construct magnificent buildings that are regarded as wonders of the world.
The science of ancient Rome contributed to its status as a leading empire of antiquity. In medieval times, the emergence of new technologies paved the way for the Industrial Revolution. In such a way, science and technology are major forces of development. At the same time, these phenomena do not remain unchanged; they evolve, reflecting the evolution of human thought.
Significant advances in science also characterize the modern age. The extensive scope of changes and the emergence of new practices led to the emergence of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. It describes the current development environment and technologies, including the Internet of Things, computers, robots, and virtual reality (Chen et al., 2019).
The last one is one of the new and rapidly evolving technologies with outstanding characteristics and a high number of potential applications. This computer-generated simulation, which can be interacted with, is used in various fields, including education, medicine, and engineering. Thus, augmented reality (AR), as the continuation of VR, offers more unique chances to reconsider outdated approaches and replace them with new ones. For this reason, the presented paper is devoted to investigating AR, its peculiarities, characteristics, and the overall state of technology’s development patterns in the modern world.
Background and Evolution of Technology
The evolution of technology can be viewed as a continuous attempt to simplify the most important tasks, address current challenges, and lay the groundwork for new advances in science. Technology can be defined as a material entity created by a mental and physical effort to achieve a specific value (Koppu, 2022). Its importance and value depend on the current society’s needs and decisions that might be generated due to the employment of new approaches.
Considering the importance of technology, numerous attempts have been made to understand its evolution and origins. The models of the technological life cycle were introduced to discuss the phases of a certain innovation’s evolution (Kalthaus, 2020). At the same time, the S-curve approach illustrates the phases characteristic of the emergence, development, and decline of a specific device or design.
From this perspective, AR’s emergence and increased popularity are a result of the growing demand for this type of innovation. It enters the emerging and growth stages of evolution as numerous organizations already use AR. However, it continues to evolve and remains immature, as there are numerous opportunities for improvement and the appearance of new methods of interacting with AR.
In this way, the background of this technology’s emergence and development is the current demand for new imaging methods to perform complex tasks and achieve better results (Chen et al., 2019). At the same time, its evolution is cyclical due to changes in society’s peculiarities and functioning. AR is one of the new essential approaches that is currently undergoing rapid growth.
Anderson and Tushman Technology Life Cycle
The evolution of technology was investigated by Anderson and Tushman, who offered their own idea. The cyclical model of a technology life cycle (TLC) helps to understand development from various dimensions and considers the impact of specific factors. The idea implies that four specific phases are typical for the emergence of new knowledge and its transformation into a certain device. These include an era of ferment, the emergence of a dominant design, an era of incremental change, and discontinuity (Anderson and Tushman, 1990).
The last stage is also necessary for restarting the cycle, meaning that the emergence, development, and maturity of one technology are crucial for creating the basis for the induction of new knowledge into the knowledge base and its application in creating new devices (Kalthaus, 2020). In this way, the TLC promotes an enhanced vision of how every innovation evolves and transforms to meet current social demands.
The model proposed by Anderson and Tushman can be applied to various technologies to explain the emergence and growth of new procedures. For instance, the popularity and increased attention to AR can be linked to the significant advances in computer technology and VR. The technology is at the beginning of its development cycle, as it still lacks a dominant design, and there is a high degree of variation and uncertainty about potential future changes (Chen et al., 2019).
However, it is becoming an essential part of scientific thought nowadays. The given example illustrates the increased applicability of the model proposed by Anderson and Tushman and its relevance to the modern world. All existing innovations and achievements can be analyzed using TLC to understand the current phase of their growth and conclude whether it is possible to expect their transformation into a new technology that might promote more significant global changes.
Era of Ferment
The era of ferment is one of the first stages offered by Anderson and Tushman in their model. It starts the development of a new technology immediately after the discovery and the emergence of a new technological principle. Scientific discovery serves as a potent stimulus for promoting societal evolution and implementing new methods for performing specific tasks. At this stage, the technology is poorly understood, and a high degree of uncertainty prevails over the major technology’s characteristics and opportunities for its application (Kalthaus, 2020).
At the same time, the knowledge base on the newly discovered technology remains limited and unstructured due to a lack of investigation and scientific research. At this stage, the first applications characterized by high variation emerge, contributing to the creation of niche markets focused on distributing and promoting new devices (Kalthaus, 2020). It creates the basis for the growing public interest in the discovery and its integration into society’s functioning.
The era of ferment is also characterized by the increased importance of external knowledge, which can be acquired from other fields. This type of knowledge comes from other sources related to similar or already existing technologies (Anderson and Tushman, 1990). Combining both related and unrelated knowledge, scientists gain the opportunity to create new combinations that may be useful for the further development of certain technologies and their integration into everyday practices (Kalthaus, 2020).
At the same time, there is an exceptionally high risk of failure because of the uncertainty and lack of understanding of how the device or innovation should be developed (Anderson and Tushman, 1990). In this way, the era of ferment can be viewed as the first stage of a new approach’s development, necessary for broadening the current knowledge on the topic. Regarding AR, the perspectives differ, as the technology already has a specific foundation for its development (Mascareñas et al., 2021). However, there are ideas that radical alteration in working with reality can be promoted by new inventions (Chen et al., 2019). Nevertheless, technology already exists and is gradually becoming part of various activities.
Dominant Design
Dominant design is the next stage of the cycle introduced by Anderson and Tushman. This phase is characterized by increasing economies of scale and scope, as well as the emergence of potent standardization processes due to advances in understanding and investigating technology (Anderson and Tushman, 1990). Moreover, the knowledge base, which was previously poor, becomes richer and more structured, which is vital for eliminating uncertainty and establishing the dominant design patterns that can be used to create and implement technology in real-life settings (Kalthaus, 2020).
Moreover, knowledge exchange remains essential as it facilitates the establishment of institutions vital for continuing investigations and developing a single, most effective approach to utilizing innovation. However, the importance of other fields of knowledge diminishes due to the broadening of the specific one and its transformation into a separate branch of science (Anderson and Tushman, 1990). As a result, scientists have the opportunity to work on a specific and well-developed framework.
Furthermore, the dominant design phase is characterized by a reduction in the number of variations. This is achieved through the determination of application levels for the dominant design (Kalthaus, 2020). By combining existing knowledge and analyzing related fields, scientists develop an understanding of the core principles of technology critical for improved performance and its application in various spheres (Anderson and Tushman, 1990). It also contributes to the growth in the number of adopters who would benefit from using the innovation.
Speaking about AR, it is possible to notice similar processes as the knowledge base becomes more prominent and structured. Currently, AR is viewed as a developing technology with a specific design that can be applied in various spheres (Sunger and Cankaya, 2019). It is still evolving in terms of the core principles formulated in virtual reality and how they can be used to simplify specific tasks (Cipresso et al., 2018). The knowledge base supporting the technology also becomes broader because of numerous investigations and research projects.
Nevertheless, the question of whether dominant design exists remains disputable. Using AR as an example, it is possible to state that, at the moment, there are numerous views on the technology. Thus, there is a generalized perspective that considers it a system comprising three basic features: the combination of real and virtual worlds, real-time interaction, and 3D registration of virtual and real objects (Cipresso et al., 2018).
It is achieved by combining VR technologies and specific software to enhance natural environments (Cipresso et al., 2018). This definition can be viewed as the dominant design at the moment; however, as technology continues to evolve, there is a high likelihood of introducing new perspectives and methods to create AR and interact with reality. In this way, it is possible to acknowledge that the technology is in the dominant design phase, while still acknowledging some uncertainty due to new advances.
The Era of Incremental Change and Technological Discontinuity
The era of incremental change implies the gradual improvement of technology. The phase is characterized by the further broadening of the knowledge base, along with a deeper understanding of the major technological principles that serve as the basis for various devices’ operation (Kalthaus, 2020). At the same time, the dominant design is effective, allowing investigators to expand their knowledge on the topic and create the basis for new improvements. This information is crucial for addressing incremental issues that are essential for achieving incremental improvements (Anderson and Tushman, 1990).
Furthermore, a new generation of scientists with an enhanced understanding of the field might offer the basis for further improvements and radical changes. The stage can be viewed as the peak of technology’s evolution. Speaking about AR, the technology is far from entering the era of incremental change. There is considerable room for improvement, as this form of interaction with reality is rare and viewed as experimental, while attempts are being made to integrate it into everyday practices.
Technological discontinuity is the final phase of the cycle offered by Anders and Tushman. It is characterized by the technology’s disruption and the emergence of a new developmental trajectory (Anderson and Tushman, 1990). The knowledge base becomes exhausted due to numerous investigations, while the likelihood of discovering innovative technical opportunities decreases (Kalthaus, 2020). Typically, the phase occurs when the technology reaches its natural limits due to a lack of scientific support or its inability to promote further development (Kalthaus, 2020).
At the same time, the phase is vital for the evolution of related knowledge bases and the emergence of recombination that will help design new technology in a disruptive way. Regarding AR, the technology is far from being a disruption due to numerous opportunities for its further enhancement and utilization (Sunger and Cankaya, 2019). The knowledge base also continues to grow due to recent research and adopters’ readiness to continue working within the given field.
The Technology Improvement S-Curve
The development of technology and its decline can also be presented graphically. The technology improvement s-curve considers the evolution of a certain function over time (Scillitoe, 2013):
The graph shows that time, engineering effort, and product performance are interrelated. In the early stages of the technology’s emergence, its performance remains low due to uncertainty and a lack of knowledge on how to utilize it in real-life settings (Scillitoe, 2013). Over time, the engineering effort invested in the technology increases, contributing to its enhanced understanding and acquisition of additional information on how it can be utilized in everyday activities. It impacts the technology’s development cycle and performance, meaning that it enters the phase of active growth and maturity. However, all technologies eventually become obsolete due to advancements in science. For this reason, the s-curve shows that the gradual decline changes the peak phase.
The S-curve can be combined with the cycle offered by Anderson and Tushman. A chain of S-curves can help clarify the process of technological development and its various stages.
The initial position of the S-curve is characterized by minimal effort and time invested in the technology. It can be viewed as a ferment stage because of the lack of knowledge and information on the topic. However, during evolution, the product enters a take-off or dominant design phase, characterized by a deeper understanding of the core principles and how they can be applied. The maturity stage, or the era of incremental change, marks the peak of the technology’s evolution, as it offers ways for improvement and stable operation.
Finally, these stages are replaced by discontinuity, or disruption, which is replaced by new technology, and the curve repeats. Applying the model, AR can be at the take-off phase as it continues to evolve. It is impossible to speak about maturity without implying a complete understanding of the technology and its ubiquitous applications in various spheres. However, it continues to evolve and approach the maturity stage, which is vital for technology development in general.
Adopter Categories
The evolution of any project can also be analyzed by using adopter categories.
Innovators
This group consists of clients or companies who are the first to try a new product. They can be viewed as risk-takers due to the high likelihood of failure (Dutta and Sarma, 2020). However, they provide a connection between science and a new project, which is vital for the further development of technology. As for AR, it is mostly presented by innovators offering expensive and exclusive products. These include products such as Microsoft’s augmented reality smart glasses or similar technologies.
Early Adopters
Early adopters are the first to follow innovators, and they are viewed as influential individuals within the market space (Dutta and Sarma, 2020). Typically, they hold a high social status and have access to sufficient finances, enabling them to acquire expensive technology. The early adopters of AR include the healthcare, oil, and military spheres (Carl et al., 2020; Giunta et al., 2018). They benefit from the new opportunities to investigate various cases and acquire additional information.
Early Majority
The early majority is another type when the product enters the mass market. This class is typically risk-averse and seeks to ensure that the product they acquire can contribute to their growth (Dutta and Sarma, 2020). These adopters are crucial for the popularization of the product and its further development. Thus, when discussing AR, the early majority adopters can be found in the e-commerce sphere, as it enables clients to interact with products and decide whether they are worth purchasing (Chylinski et al., 2020).
Late Majority
This category comprises individuals and companies that invest in technology when it is tested and the risks are low (Dutta and Sarma, 2020). They have less interaction with innovators and leaders; instead, they are focused on purchasing final products that are already popular. They usually emerge when the technology is mature, which means that for AR, this category of adopters is not relevant.
Laggards
Laggards typically begin using the technology when it enters its decline phase. They start considering this option when it becomes one of the traditional methods of performing some tasks (Dutta and Sarma, 2020). For this reason, it indicates the end of the fast growth phase. They can be put on the declining part of the S-curve. For AR, this type of adopter is irrelevant as the innovation is being integrated.
Altogether, the relevant adopter categories show that AR technology has transitioned from early adopters to the early majority. It remains a rare and expensive technology; however, some sectors and companies are utilizing it to gain a competitive advantage or resolve complex tasks.
AR Innovators, First Movers, and Market Leaders
Innovators, first movers, and market leaders are the three primary categories that promote the development of certain technologies and their entry into the market. Thus, for AR, the innovators and first movers can also be viewed as market leaders. It is explained by the fact that the technology remains innovative and rare, which means that companies focusing on their development also attempt to present it to the market and identify their target audience (Sullivan, 2022).
Companies such as Oculus, HTC, Google, and Microsoft can be viewed as innovators and first movers because of the AR technologies they introduced to the public (Sullivan, 2022). At the same time, they enjoy the first-mover advantage because of the absence of rivals and the low risk of substitution. With the further evolution of technology, it is possible to predict the emergence of new companies struggling with innovators and first movers.
The Future of Augmented Reality
The augmented reality market is likely to continue growing due to high demand for the technology and its increased accessibility to consumers. The broadening of the knowledge base led to an enhanced understanding of AR and created the basis for the emergence of the dominant design (Heemsbergen, Bowtell, and Vincent, 2021). Moreover, this innovation is vital for healthcare, military, design, and space exploration spheres, which might be viewed as a potent stimulus for AR’s further evolution. AR can be viewed as the next step for numerous companies, which promotes the growth and transformation of the augmented reality market into an attractive investment sphere. At the same time, there are no signs of disruption, meaning there are no limits that might impact AR’s development and further transformation.
Conclusion
Overall, AR is one of the innovative technologies playing an important role in modern society. It is viewed as a way of creating enhanced reality and interacting with it. Following the Anderson and Tushman Technology Life Cycle and the S-curve of technology development, it remains in the phase of active development. The knowledge base linked to the technology continues to evolve, and new perspectives on its future applications emerge.
Moreover, there are already specific types of adopters necessary for the further rise of technology, and it’s becoming one of the products of interest to clients. In this way, it is possible to predict the future rise of AR and its growing popularity due to the stable demand for the technology and its ability to address and resolve existing issues in various spheres, such as healthcare, space, and the military.
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