The withdrawal of the UK from the European Union, known as Brexit or the Leave, has been the point of much debate, in particular, because of the multitude of supporting arguments on both sides. The supporters have named such reasons as uncontrolled immigration rates adversely affecting the job market, housing, and education, while the opponents mostly pointed to the benefits of international partnership. The reasons most often named as responsible for the ultimate outcome of the referendum are of political, economic, and social character, although some experts also point to the psychological underpinnings.
Literature Review
Since the voting has confirmed the determination of the majority to leave, several experts have offered different explanations regarding the reasons for such overwhelming dissatisfaction. Most of them name the poor economic and financial performance and the uncontrollable rate of the immigration, while other quote the poor political decisions by the EU officials which introduce uncertainty into the British political affairs. For instance, Field Marshal Charles Guthrie names the questionable military operations run by the European Union as undermining the integrity of its members’ defensive capabilities (Brexit, 2016). Guthrie also voices concerns regarding the complexity of government composed of 28 countries with different agendas, which disrupts the ability of quick action, and the absence of clear leadership and unified goals (Brexit, 2016). Tony Abbott, a former prime minister of Australia, noted that since Britain has the world’s fifth largest economy, there is no reason to comply with the external standards, and that Britain would benefit from free trade agreements more than from the current setup, where Britain is forced to contribute to the Union’s budget, which currently leaves it with a net loss of £8.5 billion (Brexit, 2016).
In fact, some experts, including Noel Malcolm, a senior research fellow of All Souls College, Oxford, suggest that leaving European Union will benefit both sides, as the system is currently dysfunctional to the point where it disrupts the possible economic benefits, and that once Britain is allowed to handle its affairs independently the overall climate and international relations will improve (Brexit, 2016). An article published in Independent suggests underlying psychological implications for the unanimity. At least some of the decisions were driven by the opposition to social change that is currently happening across Europe. The poll conducted by the Tory peer Lord Ashcroft shows a clear tendency of voters supporting the Leave to be hostile towards feminism, multiculturalism, and social liberalism, among others (Chu, 2016). For these people, Brexit is essentially the way of expressing their disagreement with the current tendencies, which they strongly associate with their own low level of wealth. There is also evidence that suggests some connection between the desire to leave and economic deprivation (Chu, 2016), which is logical once we assume the change to the better but becomes dubious in case there is no direct and clear relation between the two.
Background
To properly determine the reasons for the Leave, a concise review of the implications is required. The majority of the most popular given reasons can be categorized as either economic, social, or political.
Economic Issues
Cheap labor
One of the most often cited reasons for leaving EU is the current situation on the job market. The current statistics show a sharp increase in the EU workers being employed in Britain, rising from 1.4 million in 2013 to 2.1 million in 2016. The EU workforce now comprises 6.8 percent of the total working population, compared to 2.6% registered in 2006 (Travis, 2016).
This situation is attributed chiefly to the fact that being a member of the European Union requires a milder immigration policy which presumably allows the immigrants from less economically stable regions of Southern and Eastern Europe to apply for the more financially appealing positions. Such setting evidently limits the possibilities for the native British to find a job. Furthermore, the immigrants from the less economically strong regions are likely to be satisfied with a lower salary. This allows the employers to lower the wages and actually prefer cheaper workforce, creating the overall downward trend in wages and benefits and putting the British citizens at a disadvantage. Finally, the absence of the upper limit of the immigration compromises the predictability of the job market, introducing uncertainty and compromising stability.
Education
The gradually rising immigration rates are also named as a primary reason for the shortage of places in the public schools. An independent non-political organization Migration Watch UK has estimated that since the migration has taken serious pace in the late nineties, the additional funding allocated solely for the children of immigrants was more than £16 billion, with the cost steadily progressing each year (Migration Watch UK, 2015).
In addition, the projected rates suggest the continuation of the trend, further complicated by the expected birth rates from the immigrating population. As most of the immigrants are of working age and rarely come to Britain with children, the “direct” impact of immigration is relatively negligible, so most of the projected increase comes as an “indirect” impact. Despite the government constantly building new facilities to accommodate the new students, it is likely that the rates of new school places’ surplus can not cope with the projected number, and by 2019 at least three-fifths of the local authorities will likely have insufficient primary schools to provide education for all children. Currently, 93 percent of the British population receives education through public schools, and, since there is no reason to expect a different distribution among the immigrant population, the effect may seriously undermine the educational system.
Social Issues
Homelessness
There are also concerns regarding the rise of homelessness rates connected to the membership in the EU. The initial assumption is that the immigrants fail to find the place to live, resulting in more people in the streets. Additionally, social programs aimed at addressing the issue require funding, which rises with the growing immigration rates. However, upon closer inspection, neither of the claims is directly related to homelessness rates. Thus, the homelessness issue is most likely triggered by the underlying psychological issues rather than the actual social phenomenon.
Health issues
One of the central arguments for leaving EU was the possibility to allocate the resources which are paid to the EU (about £8 billion yearly) to National Health Service (NHS), which is currently seriously underfunded. However, the situation is likely more complex than portrayed by the Brexit proponents. First, there is no guarantee that all, or even any of the saved resources will be allocated to healthcare. Second, the EU membership is at least partially beneficial for the NHS – for instance, the shortages of medical and nursing personnel is currently dealt with by recruiting foreign workforce.
Political Issues
Housing
Some people believe that immigration is also resulting in shortages of housing for the native population. While the uncontrolled rate of population growth will inevitably lead to the housing issues, the problem is two-sided. The housing market is gradually rising after the referendum. This means a more stable income for those in business, but also a more expensive cost of living for the British. In a way, housing prices were changing on the same principles as wages discussed above, so currently there is no clear answer if the Leave was ultimately good for the native population.
Racism
One of the most bitter and hotly debated topics connected to the Leave is the growing anxiety resulting from immigrants from other countries. Some suggest that the direction taken by the EU towards multiculturalism creates unnecessary tensions, and some go as far as state that racism is caused by the influx of people from other countries. Others suggest that racism is a cause rather than the result, and the exposure will gradually alleviate the issue. While there is no conclusive evidence to either of points, the immigration seems to be the cause of at least some of the anxiety in the UK (Chu, 2016).
Smugglers
The relaxed visa policy of EU has also led to the assertions that the immigrants are using it to smuggle goods in the UK. The belief is not unfounded, as the possibilities for smuggling are increasing from the statistical perspective and the customs personnel deals with gradually increasing amount of work.
Methodology
The research was done in the form of literature review. The information was gathered using the reputable and reliable online sources. The preference was given to the British periodicals such as the Guardian, The Independent, and The Spectator. The statistical data was retrieved from the independent non-political organizations such as Migration Watch UK.
Results
The predictions of the effects of Brexit are polarizing. As almost all of the discussed issues have two sides to them, there is no conclusive evidence that the changes will be immediate and beneficial for all of the population, as portrayed by its proponents. At the same time, at least some of the issues, such as the shortages in public education, will likely see improvement in the nearest years. Unfortunately, at least some of the problems attributed to EU membership are either the aftermath of the financial crisis or, in some cases, the shortcomings of the British government, so the change, even in 20 years, will not likely be as overwhelmingly positive as people believe. For instance, the job market may gain stability, but lose in flexibility, so the actual benefit for native population is uncertain and may come unnoticed for most of the British. The NHS will likely receive additional funding, but may result in understaffing, as well as complicate the international healthcare threats, such as pandemics. Finally, the social anxiety will likely be relieved in the short term (probably within a year), but may backlash for the immigrants who will stay in Britain, as racism is highly unlikely to disappear once the borders are more strictly controlled.
Conclusion
The Leave is a hotly debated topic for a reason. It involves a multitude of interconnected factors. Some of them are appealing to the public, such as the control over the immigration and improvements in wages. Others are more complicated and do not evidently result in benefits for the majority of the population, for which reason they are usually overlooked or downplayed. Nevertheless, such factors also count in as significant for country’s well-being. Both groups of factors will inevitably be affected by the Leave, but the net outcome is uncertain. Some areas, such as public education, will likely see change for the better, while others, such as medicine, will face additional challenges. It is certain, however, that the economic, social, and political sectors will have to deal with the changes, not all of which will be favorable and most of which will strongly impact the performance. This effectively means that while in the long run, the Leave may be ultimately good for Great Britain, the initial stage will most certainly be disappointing for many of its supporters.
References
Brexit: reasons to be cheerful. (2016). Web.
Chu, B. (2016). Why did people really vote for Brexit? If we don’t face the psychological reasons, we’ll never bring Britain together. Web.
Migration Watch UK. (2015). The Impact of Immigration on England’s school places shortage. Web.
Travis, A. (2016). Are EU migrants really taking British jobs and pushing down wages? Web.