Introduction
There is an indication of a warming of the environment. The data shows an increase in the minimum temperatures as well as this is shown by a gradual but consistent change in the average minimum temperatures that have been recorded in most of the latter fifteen years increasing gradually. The rise in the average annual range of temperatures have however shown a more consistent increase over the same period of time.
This change in the average annual range of temperatures has been in the form of a decrease. This decrease has led to the difference between the two temperatures to be very slight. The main factor leading to this decrease in the average annual range of temperatures is an increase in the minimum temperatures; this however has not been accompanied by a commensurate increase in the average maximum temperatures. This data therefore agrees with the projections of the theorists.
Main body
The data shows a gradual decrease in the high precipitation. The decrease in the heavy precipitation is accompanied by an increase in light precipitation over the same period of time. Moderate precipitation recorded an almost steady phase over the same period of time. However there is an overall upward trend of increase in the moderate precipitation. The average annual precipitation however has not been greatly affected.
The average annual rainfall experienced is therefore actually in gradual increase. The average annual surplus is also at a steady level. There are no abrupt changes in either direction that were recorded within the period of time under the study. According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2002, the early signs of climate change in global warming include increased heavy down pours. This is not the case in this study since the data shows and increase in average light precipitation as opposed to heavy precipitation. The study therefore differs from the theory in that respect.
According to (Tidwell, 2002) the major indicators of global warming are first an increased rate of sea glacial recession. This is also to be followed by an increase in annual evapo-transpiration. The main cause of increased evapo-transpiration is mainly an increasing in the average daily temperatures as well as an increase in the light hours in a day. The increase in the daily temperatures is especially occasioned by the ‘Green house effect’. This therefore causes a rise in average temperatures and hence occasioning rise in the average evapo-transpiration. This is reinforced by the rising of the average minimum daily temperatures.
In regards to the surface runoff/ stream flow. Studies have suggested a likely increase in the amount of surface runoff and increased stream flow, (Oxlade, 2002).The reasons attributed to this are mainly stated as two. First, the warming will cause a melting of the glaciers, this will lead to an increase in the water that is running downstream. This therefore automatically leads to a increase in the amount of surface runoff being experienced in a particular place.
The second reason is that the symptoms of global warming include floods and heavy downpours. This implies that there are will be very little time for the water to percolate. This implies that the rate of percolation will allow room for water to run off the surface and lead to increased run off and stream levels.
The increased rainfall is also slightly a consequence of the increased temperatures which increase the rate of evapo-transpiration and thereby raising the rate of downpours. This eventually has an impact on the amount of water in the seas leading to a rise in the levels of the seas. The surplus conditions are also expected to increase in the same trend. this is therefore bound to be and indicator of increased climatic changes. Flooding is also one of the features listed as a harbinger of the climate change. According to (IPCC 2002), flooding and increased runoff is a key indicator of the rate of climate change.
In the data we have, no conclusive deduction can be made on the climates behavior. The data however has three very strong indicators of warming. The temperature range has recorded a slight reduction. The surface runoff also has recorded a slight increase as well as the average annual surplus recording a slight increase. These changes have however not been abrupt or radical. The other parameters such as evapotranspiration as well as the type of precipitation do not agree with the projected outcomes in the theorists statements. This therefore does not provide for a conclusive deduction on the average trend in the climate.
The study tells us several issues about the research on environmental issues like global warming. First it gives an indicator that, for any conclusions to be made on climatic trends , a thorough research needs to be done. this does not however mean that the study does not give results that are indicative. It also shows that the changes in the climate are gradual and slow to occur. The implication of this therefore is that there should be serious documentation of the climatic changes to give room for more accurate analysis.
The other important information that can be obtained fro this study is that, for an accurate study to be done on the global climatic trends, there should be be a large region under study. This is shown by the fact that, the study from which this data was recorded was limited to the Wabash water shed. This could make the data biased especially if the area is located along the coats, or in high attitude areas such as the mountainous regions. The mountainous areas tend to reduce the observable signs, while the coastal areas increase the magnitude of the observable signs.
The study therefore underscores the importance of undertaking a wider study in two main respects. One, the study should take place over a long period of time to control for variables that might be misconstrued as indicators of climatic changes. This might therefore lead to erroneous conclusions on the likely outcomes of these changes. The second consideration is on the geographical coverage of such climatic studies. Such studies should focus more on a wider geographical are so that the conclusions that are made are include other climatic zones. This also reduces the possibility of their being any bias in the study.
There are other types data that we should put in consideration before making a worthwhile analysis. First, the analysis should consider the existing of glacier recession in the are under study. The glaciers should therefore be checked to establish if the have reduced in their surface coverage. This is also considered a key indicator of global warming. The other major data that should be taken into consideration is the sea water levels. Theorists have indicated the rise in sea water levels as one of the key indicators of global warming. The data should therefore be used to determine the cohesiveness and the integrity of the data obtained in the analysis of the other parameters.
The other important source data is the previous climatic studies that have been recorded in the region under study. This is important to verify whether the climatic changes being witnessed are just a part of a normal cycle that occurs in the area under study. This however ceases to be a major question especially if the study was carried over a large area. This gives sufficient data for cross referencing and comparison to arrive at a good conclusion.
Some of the climate trends can be linked to human agencies. for example the increase in minimum temperatures. This could have been occasioned by the increased release of gases that cause greenhouse effect. Human activities such as coal mining and use, and the use of petrol and petroleum products lead to release of copious amounts of theses gases into the atmosphere. The released gases form a layer above the ground which leads to blanket like covering on the surface of the earth. This reduces the circulation and thereby blocking the flow of terrestrial radiation. This therefore reduces the efficiency of heat dissipation from the earths surface. The overall impact of this is increase in the temperatures and reduction in the average temperature range.
The other human activity that could lead to these climatic changes is the cutting of vegetation. This is a direct human activity that has very direct impact on the state of both the micro and macro climate. The cutting of trees leads to these symptoms in two ways, one the vegetation cover that is responsible for the controlling of surface runoff is depleted. This leads to an increase in the surface runoff. The eventual result is that the runoff increases.
The other impact of the felling of trees is the reduction in the amount of trees in the synthetic ecosystem. This implies that, there are less tress to consume the carbon dioxide that is produced from human activities and thus the carbon dioxide is released to the atmosphere where int increases the blanket effect.
The human activities also can have an impact on the climate in a positive dimension. For example, in is cases where the residents of an area are practicing active irrigation agriculture, this can have serious impacts on the environmental conditions. The main reason why this could lead to an increase in precipitation is, if the agriculture the people are practicing include planting of trees and put the formerly afforested areas under forest cover, then the rain in the area is likely to increase.
Similarly the temperatures are likely to lower. The overall surface runoff will decrease due to an increase in the vegetation, that is involved in water retention, in the same region that was initially experiencing high rates of surface run off. The control of the surface runoff could therefore be misconstrued as an decrease in the indicators of global warming. This therefore is another reason why a study on climatic changes should extend over a wide geographical area.
Other activities that contribute to climatic change may include the burning of charcoal which becomes harmful in two ways. First it reduces the vegetation cover in the environment. this therefore leads to an increase in the surface runoff. There other way is through the release of the green house gases into the environment as explained earlier on.
Methane is a natural gases whose impact on the environment can be equated to that of the carbon dioxides. Gas is always produced during the mining of coal. It is also produced during the mining of crude petroleum as well as during the refining of crude petroleum. The release of crude methane gas contributes to the increase of the green house effect. This as well leads to an increase in the temperatures. The other major consequence of the methane gas is the depletion of the ozone layer.
This destroys the protective cover that the ozone provides to the earths surface. this leads to the exposure of the earths surface to the impact of the rays and the eventual rise in temperatures. Other gases that are occasioned by the human activities include Chlorofluorocarbon (CFC). This is a gas that is mostly used for commercial refrigeration purpose. This especially leads to depletion of the ozone layer, the impact of which is as stated above.
Conclusion
The trends are indicators of a possible change in temperatures in the immediate future. These changes are likely to be in the form of increased temperatures. However, within the period of time that the area was under study, the climate was rather steady. however this is bound to change since the first hall mark indicators have registered in the form of reduce average annual temperature ranges. The theory of Global warming therefore has a lot of speculative information. This therefore requires a lot of research to determine the extent of the impacts that are derived from the observable factors.
References
Tidwel M., (2002). Tide on a Rampage: Future Katrinas; Strange Weather That Could Kill Americas Coast. NY: Free P.
Oxalade C., (2002). Global Warming. NY: Capstone P.
The Panel on Climate and Change: Intergovernmental-IPCC, (1999). Global Warming-The Early Signs of Warning. Web.
Jack W., (2003). The Complete Guide to Climate Change- For Idiots. Washington: Capstone Press.