Introduction
This is a critical analysis essay on the article written by Professor David Bellamy titled ‘The Global Warming Myth’. In the article Bellamy presents a different point of view on global warming. The article presents an alternative point of view and was published in the New Zealand Science Coalition. His stance on the subject of global warming is that it is a myth which is hyped by the media to cause panic in the people.
He mentions in his article that the prediction of global warming in the future is based on uncertainty, and on the basis of limited information available on the subject matter. The point put forward by Bellamy is that the changes that are being experienced in terms of the weather and climate do not indicate global warming, and are instead indicators of a future ice age which is known to occur in a cyclical fashion. He dispels the notion of a global warming occurrence as being ill founded and lacking evidence. This essay is in agreement with the argument put forward by Bellamy regarding the presence of global warming as a threatening issue for the future.
Analysis
The argument against the occurrence of global warming, as highlighted by Bellamy who depicts it to be more of a myth in the general public instead of a reality, is based on the dubious nature of climate change. The climate has been changing all over the world; however the nature of the change is very different from what would be expected in global warming. Instead of the temperatures rising in regions, increased snow fall, increased rainfall and lower temperatures have been observed recently. Bellamy states in his article that a cyclical pattern is depicted by the rising and the lowering temperatures in the last century with limited periods of increased temperature along with limited period of very low temperatures.
In fact in the 1980s the same people who are touting global warming were adamant on the occurrence of a future ice age which would strike earth again based on the decreasing temperatures being observed during that time. However, since after the 80s scientists, politicians as well as action groups are predicting a future global warming whereby the ozone layer would get depleted and the radiation coming to the surface of the earth would adversely effect the ecology, animal and flora/ fauna life on the planet. The evidence provided by them for the possible occurrence of global warming are the trends of climate change and rising/ decreasing weather temperatures recorded over the last few decades which have already been proven to be insufficient as with the prediction of a future ice age.
In addition to this, scientific research has also not been able to provide ground breaking evidence for the relationship between carbon dioxide and the apparent impending threat of global warming. Bellamy depicts in his article that since 1998 the temperatures around the world on average have fallen and this despite the increased emission of carbon dioxide and related green house gases. On the other hand the animals like polar bears which were facing extinction a few years ago have started to rebreed and thrive again in the sustaining cooler temperatures in the arctic. This presents how the relationship between carbon dioxide and global warming is not evidently observed in reality.
In spite of the increased public opinion that global warming is an already incurring phenomenon and can be realized in drastic results as soon as in 20 to 30 years, it stands dubious as well in the face of the falling temperatures in the recent years. The world saw its temperatures decreasing in 1910 when the Niagara Falls (‘Niagara Falls Frozen Over in 1911’) froze over and then again in 1970 giving lead to the assumption that a possible ice age is near. However the trend has depicted that the weather fluctuations are a cycle that takes place every 60 or so years and is not an indicator of global warming like the media has the public believing. Recently in the February of 2009 only, Ireland and Britain experienced one of the heaviest snowfall in the past 20 years with recorded 1 ft of snow in the hardest hit areas. (‘Heaviest snow in 20 years brings large parts of Britain to a halt’).
The global warming issue reeks of controversy set by the political influencers in the world of today. McCarthyism is observed in the political circles pertaining to global warming according to Bellamy who mentions it in his article he states that the global warming is being used as an issue to gain votes from the public while making them scared and panicked towards promoting action for a future event which is not scientifically proven to take place in the future. Instead, more important issues and problems are being hidden which present a more urgent threats like the meltdown of the economy, political and economic reforms that present more of a danger to the public are being covered by the hype of the global warming.
Evaluation
The strength of the argument lies in the evidence presented by Bellamy pertaining to the fluctuations in the world average temperatures in the last century and how they point towards a cyclical occurrence of troughs of low temperatures along with peaks of high temperature recordings. This indicates how the persistent argument for global warming may be a fallacy not based on clear evidence. Similarly the strength of the argument also lies in the nation of the relationship between carbon dioxide and global warming which is much touted around. Global warming and increase in carbon dioxide levels are not related phenomenon as period of ice ages have revealed a high level of carbon dioxide. Moreover in the recent years the teremperatures have been falling instead of falling with the increasing level of carbon dioxide giving way to the fact that the relationship between carbon dioxide and global warming may be little understood by the scientists.
Additionally adding to the evidence against global warming as a prediction made for an uncertainty Bellamy quotes Dr Jim Renwick belonging to the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research in his article. This provides evidence that climate and weather cannot be predicted as it is very uncertain and complex factors contribute to the changes being made in the climate patterns for the future. This is further strengthened by Renwick’s remarks on weather prediction where he mentions that weather prediction is not possibly accurate as it cannot be made more than 2 weeks in advance.
Similarly the last hear the world has seen its capital and financial markets fall along with the imposing crash of the mortgage and housing market earlier in the Western economies. This presents how much restructuring and reform is needed in the economic and politic environment in the developed countries, but despite this over $50 billion dollars worth of media hype has been created which could have been very efficiently utilized elsewhere to better serve the people and enable them to be able to survive through the recessionary pressures being felt for the last couple of years. This has been one of the weaknesses for the argument for global warming. The implication on society and humans in lieu of the global warming scare the likes of Armageddon according to Bellamy, have made them jobless, with little avenues to support themselves and their families, therefore increasing poverty and homelessness when plants have been shut down to curtail emissions of gases like carbon dioxide.
The weakness of the argument against the occurrence of the concept of global warming also lies in the nature of weather and how unpredictable it can be. The rather unpredictable nature of the weather makes it very volatile and uncertain. Therefore it is possible for global warming to occur in the future, however the exact time cannot be ascertained as no evidence regarding the evidence of such a future event exists which can be used to base predications on.
Conclusion
The argument that has been discussed pertains to global warming being a myth and that its future occurrence is not based on sound scientific factual evidence. The analysis and evaluation of the argument has revealed this to be positive as no deductions can be made from the existing weather and climate change patterns to forecast a future event of global warming. Moreover, the evidence has in fact revealed a current trend where the temperatures are moving down depicting global cooling instead of global warming which again negates the claims that global warming has already commenced and would reach a full-blown state in the next 20 to 30 years. The cyclical trend of global cooling or ice age characteristics has been revealed to occur every 60 or so years in 1850, 1910, and 1970 depicting that the high and low temperatures that occur are part of a climate cycle instead of global warming.
In addition to this it has also been provided that predicting weather is very complex and cannot be done for as long a period of time as 20-30 years, therefore it is not possible to conclusively depict that global warming may occur in the near future based on uncertainty. This is the main weakness of the argument as well as the weather is highly volatile and unpredictable and the occurrence of global warming cannot be ruled out entirely, however, it can be ensured that it is not taking place now or in the near future.
References
- 2009, Heaviest snow in 20 years brings large parts of Britain to a halt, Times Online.
- Bellamy, D., The Global Warming Myth, The New Zealand Science Coalition.
- Govier, T., 2005, A Practical Study of Argument, Ed. 6, Wadsworth Publishing
- Niagara Falls Frozen Over in 1911, About.com.