Introduction
Disruptive innovation is a theoretical concept commonly used to describe any startup that aims to revolutionize or change the existing competitive patterns in an industry. This conception is based on the postulation that an invention becomes distractive when it changes consumer demands or the enterprise’s status quo; it was popularized by Christensen’s theory regarding disruptive technologies (Kumaraswamy et al., 2018).
The theory typically highlights how micro-entrants with minimal resources could successfully challenge or displace established incumbent organizations by creating products/services that appeal to niche consumers and are ignored by these businesses (Kumaraswamy et al., 2018). However, Christensen’s theory has been rejected by some scholars on theoretical and practicability grounds (King & Baatartogtokh, 2015). The speculation is characterized by cognitive failures and gaps in its constructs, which can be misleading to the general population.
Despite its vacuity, inanity, and invalidity, the concept has been widely accepted in the business world. Many organizations and startups have adopted the notion that to be successful, they need to innovate in radical ways and pursue upheaval (Kim & Mauborgne, 2019). Unfortunately, this mindset is linked to exigent consequences, which cause more harm than good (Kim & Mauborgne, 2019). Disruptive technological advancements can destroy inherent products, existing markets and companies, and employment patterns, which negatively impacts a society’s economic growth.
Self-Driving Vehicle Technology
Automated vehicles are an example of disruptive innovations projected to be the future of transportation. Automatic automobiles are capable of driving themselves by sensing environmental impacts using built-in features such as motion sensors, blind-spot detectors, and enhanced cruise control. Findings of a survey by Bagloee et al. (2016) reveals these cars’ efficacy in reducing road congestion, traffic jams, air emissions, and improving safety and fuel efficiency. Furthermore, various states have already passed legislation and jurisdictions to allow these vehicles to operate on roads (Litman, 2017). With the enactment of these regulations, it is extrapolated that by the 2040s to 2060s, these automobiles will have significantly replaced human-driven cars on roads.
While automated vehicles’ benefits are clear, it is uncertain how these cars will impact the future. There are competing claims on the prospective implications of self-driving automobiles, with proponents citing the benefits mentioned above and opponents adducing the adverse economic and societal effects such as unemployment and reduction in demands for transport services. If this culture is normalized, transport services such as driving, vehicle service and repair, commercial transport and parking services will be decreased significantly (Litman, 2017). Any system failures can also lead to accidents because autonomous automobiles are computer-dependent.
Additionally, there are concerns on how the car system will choose between two extremes in case of an unavoidable accident. This scenario is depicted by Yigitcanlar et al. (2019), who question how the car will decide between running over a child and saving its passengers’ lives. Although there are instances where one could use a feature or tool that helps individuals attain greater efficiency while driving, human presence is arguably the most crucial transport component.
Strategies to Address this Issue in Society
Current disputes regarding self-driving cars do not revolve around their implementation; instead, they focus on how this technology will impact the transport industry, society, and individuals. Automatic vehicles will help solve societal problems such as parking queues, harmful air emissions, traffic jams, and accidents. On the contrary, these automobiles will potentially trigger debilitating economic consequences to society. While the technology brings inarguable benefits, these advantages come at the cost of taxi drivers’ jobs and other service sellers in the industry.
Society may address this issue effectively by adopting nondisruptive technologies. According to Kim and Mauborgne (2019), businesses can still seek profit, growth, and success without interfering with the industry’s conventional operations. Kim and Mauborgne (2019) argue that non-upheaval innovations can potentially generate economic benefits without making the trade-offs that are characteristic of automated vehicles (Kim & Mauborgne, 2019). From these authors’ perspective, society can find a balance between the future negative and positive implications of self-driving cars.
One primary strategy for creating nondisruptive innovations is solving brand new problems and seizing new opportunities beyond the industry’s boundaries. As previously described, upheaval technologies typically begin with targeting consumers that have been ignored or are underserved in the community. Similarly, the transport sector players can initiate approaches to address the unmet needs of these customers to create new markets. These organizations can develop new customer profiles, which will create new marketplaces without replacing the existing ones. Adopting nondisruptive technological advancements can unbridle new-age growth and help organizations align their goals with that of society.
Another efficient strategy involves redefining existing problems in the industry. According to Nagy et al. (2016), delineating and solving underlying issues can help companies unearth established assumptions and shift the sector’s practices in another direction. From my perspective, this approach is best suited for the scenario of self-driving cars because it targets potentially disruptive innovations that already exist in the market. Nagy et al. (2016) provide a theoretical framework that outlines how organizations could intervene before an invention interferes with their industry. Because autonomous vehicles are already in the marketplace, enterprises within the automobile industry should look at the prevailing challenges from a different perspective, address assumptions, and identify new ways through which automated cars could serve society’s needs.
Survivors and Losers
Disruptive innovation interrupts value-networks, makes current business models obsolete, and prompts enterprise owners to reexamine and distinguish their consumers and customers to redefine value. High-level automakers might survive the transition, given that most of these organizations have the resources needed to adopt the new technology. On the contrary, traditional original equipment manufacturers might not outlast these changes. Tech giants are already redefining the issue and offering appealing value propositions that aim to shift the industry in the opposite direction.
Society’s Outcomes Following the Complete Transformation by Virtually Inevitable Technology
Self-driving cars are projected to be the future of the transportation industry. It is postulated that by the 2040s to 2060s, automated vehicles will have fully taken over all roads. Car ownership will significantly reduce, especially with the private vehicle sharing features. According to Litman (2017), personal vehicles will cost $4,000 annually and $20 per mile more in fixed expenses and operating costs, respectively. Therefore, conventional taxis will be generally cheaper than owning personal vehicles.
People will request rides through the software installed on their mobile devices; this will, in turn, make phone applications, data management programs, and traffic control systems a significant source of revenue in the industry. The government will need to update laws and regulations to accommodate accident liability involving autonomous automobiles. According to Bagloee et al. (2016), searching for parking spots in downtown streets will be unnecessary with the implementation of automated vehicles. The current parking spaces and infrastructure might be reconstructed for retail purposes by accommodating new housing, retail stores, and offices.
The world will be characterized by lower carbon emissions, reduced traffic jams and parking congestion, reduced commuter time, and reduced demand for commercial transportation services. Business models will also shift from service- to equipment-oriented services.
Winners and Losers
The winners of the self-driving cars include tech-giant companies such as Tesla, Google, and nuTonomy. These companies will work, hand in hand with automobile manufacturers to design and create value-added services and software required to run the automated vehicles. According to Yigitcanlar et al. (2019), subscriptions to exquisite navigation and mapping services will be a billion-dollar industry in the coming years. Other winners of autonomous automobiles are individuals with limited mobility (Faisal et al., 2019). Self-driving cars will improve movability for the physically disabled, frail elderly, and children who are ineligible for driving. Mobility is a predictor for quality of life (QoL), and, therefore, it can be surmised that automated vehicles will contribute to improving these individuals’ QoL.
Although self-driving cars will positively affect some road users, the rate of motorists who stand to benefit from this technological advancement is unclear. Automated vehicles require special sensors and system controls, which may incur additional costs compared to unconventional transit methods (Hancock et al., 2019). Therefore, at the moment, it is assumptive to state that autonomous automobiles will profit typical road users. This notion is supported by a recent survey by Bagloee et al. (2016), which demonstrated road users’ unwillingness to pay the extra costs associated with self-driving cars. More research on automated vehicles’ capital and operational expenses needs to be conducted to generate a more objective discussion of automatic vehicles’ economic consequences.
The societal impact of automated vehicles will be far extensive than the simple changes set to happen in the sector. Middle-level automakers and individuals employed in the automobile sector will be the biggest losers following the adoption of this disruptive innovation. Jobs in the transportation industry will reduce significantly due to technological autonomy. The occupations of individuals working in auto insurance, manufacturing, maintenance, city transit agencies, cleaning services, oil and petroleum, glass, as well as plastics industries will become obsolete.
Bagloee et al. (2016) further indicate that truck and taxi drivers might take up new roles such as maintaining automatic vehicles’ fleet. Although this innovation’s implementation may create new career opportunities for individuals working within the transport sector, the number of these jobs might be lesser than the current situation. This conservative interpretation attributes this to the fact that self-driving cars are computer-controlled. Therefore, one will require some level of technical skills to secure a job in the industry.
Building from the above-mentioned argument that more jobs will be lost than created, it can be posited that society will be one of the biggest losers of this innovation. Unemployment effects extend beyond individual costs; it also affects people’s families and the community at large (Gruel & Stanford, 2016). Income loss will not only be incurred by humans, but the society as well, considering that the government loses the gross domestic product (GDP) when eligible workers lose productivity (Chan, 2017). High unemployment rates can cause severe financial hardship, crime, family tensions, housing stress, homelessness, poverty, and debt. Therefore, it can be concluded that society will be the biggest losers if automated vehicles are fully implemented.
Conclusion
The modern world is characterized by transformational changes caused by digitalization. Self-driving cars are an example of these transformational changes that are taking place in society. Unfortunately, like many other disruptive innovations, autonomous vehicles have exigent consequences. From the above analysis, it is wise to presume that self-driving cars’ adverse effects exceed their positive impacts. Middle-level automakers, individuals, and society will lose the most in the contest between humans and machines. Players in the transportation sector should adopt nondisruptive innovation as a counter-response to the disruptive technology.
References
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