Global Warming: Physical and Economic Impacts Research Paper

Introduction

Global warming is a term used in reference to the observed rise in the earth’s average temperature. This is a trend that has been going on from the mid-20^th Century, with prospects of its continuation positive. During the 20^th Century, it is estimated that the earth’s surface temperature witnessed a 0.74° C increase (IPCC 6). According to IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), greenhouse gases concentration in the 20^th Century owing to such human activity as deforestation and the burning of fossil fuel played a pivotal role in as far as global warming is concerned. The latest projections on climatic change by the IPCC indicate that in the 21^st Century, we may as well anticipate a further rise in the global temperature by an average of 3.6 °C. The IPCC further opines that as a result of such natural phenomena changes as volcanic eruption and solar radiation after 1950, the earth experienced a slight cooling effect. It is important to note that these fundamental conclusions arrived at by the IPPC have also been ratified by over 40 science academies and scientific societies (IPCC 12). The impacts of global warming are many and varied. For example, due to a rise in sea levels, the pattern and amount of precipitation shall also change. The Arctic is expected to be the greatest casualty of global warming, with the inevitable sea ice, glaciers and permafrost retreating (8). Extreme weather events are expected to change in terms of intensity and frequency, while some species may be faced with extinction. Agricultural yields are also expected to change. Even so, public and political debate is rife on the issue of global warming, including the possible actions to curb it.

Global warming effects

Climate change and global warming effects remain a major concern not just for human life, but also for the sake of the environment. Rising sea level, instrumental temperature recorded and a reduction in snow cover are amongst the most notable evidence regarding the observed changes in climate (Rahmstorf, Mann, Benestad, Schmidt and Connolley par. 7). Nonetheless, predictions are that in the future, the average global temperature may be expected to rise as well, along with a further rise in sea level. Although human systems are regarded as being somewhat variable in as far as their conforming to the changes in climate is concerned, however, ecosystems still remain quite vulnerable to this phenomenon. In a bid to mitigate possible risks to the ecosystem as well as humankind due to the aftermath of global warming, a majority of the countries have thus far implemented various policies designed in such a manner as to ensure that the rates at which they emit greenhouse gases are reduced drastically.

With regard to the physical impacts of global warming, the impact on weather is worth noting. Once the earth temperatures increase, this shall very well result into a rise in precipitation. However, up to this point the impact this may have on storms is yet to be clarified. Extreme weather as witnessed in various part of the world could be to a certain extent due to global warming. On the basis of future climatic change protrusions, there are several predictions that the IPCC has provided in its report on global warming (IPCC 13). According to this report, there is the likelihood for an increasing number of areas becoming drought-stricken. In addition, tropical cyclone activity is expected to become stronger, while the sea level is expected to increase drastically. The recent increase in the number and intensity of hurricanes has also been attributed to global warming (Rahmstorf et al par. 5). Rise in population density has been cited as a contributing factor to the extreme weather conditions currently being observed. Increased evaporation is another cause of global warming. The rates of evaporation drastically reduced globally during the 20^th Century. Warmer oceans results in high rates of evaporation, resulting in further erosion and heavier rainfall, owing to the closed system that characterizes the world. This phenomenon has been termed global dimming. For the tropical erase that are quite vulnerable, such as those in Africa, erosion leads to desertification. Conversely, rainfall increases results in forests growths in what was hitherto dry areas. When the effects of global warming result in loss of glacier, this directly leads to flash floods, landslides and the overflow of glacial lake. In addition, glaciers loss results in rivers experiencing water flow variations throughout the year (Keith, Ha-Duong and Stolaroff 17).

The role played by the ocean in as far as global warming is concerned is a complex one. Although the oceans are useful as reservoirs for carbon dioxide nonetheless, when these levels increase too much acidification of the ocean ensues. Moreover, with a rise on ocean temperatures, the ability of oceans to trap more carbon dioxide declines. It is expected that the oceans shall be affected by global warming in various ways. Some of the already ongoing effects are for example sea levels rising as a result of ice sheets and glaciers melting and thermal expansion (UNEP par. 1). Therefore, this has led to alterations in ocean circulation and enhanced temperature stratification. When the mid-latitude regions witness a rainfall reduction, resulting in drought, this is bound to result in more forest fires. Consequently, high levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are realized, more than is the case under normal circumstances. From an economic point of view, global warming, the overall effects of change in climate still remains highly uncertain (9). Nonetheless, the characteristic projections mainly points at changes in the global gross product.

Economically, Africa however appears to be hit the hardest, compared with the developing or developed nations. The effects of global warming on the agriculture sector are mixed, with some regions expected to benefit from changes in temperatures for example, even as others suffer. Consequently, there shall be regions that are bound to witness a decline in crop yield while others will experience a bumper harvest (Nicholls 69). Nevertheless, the sustainability of such a train still remains uncertain. It is important though to note that not all the effects of global warming are negative. For example, in western Siberia, where the largest peat bog and the associated permafrost in the world is found, should global warming result in its melting, this would in effect translate into large methane quantities being released.

Conclusion

In a bid to reduce global warming, the adopted policies should be geared towards the capture as well as the storage of carbon. However, the approaches adopted are many and varied. They are also characterized by differing benefits and costs. This is all with a view to reducing the release of greenhouse gas, in line with the deliberations of the Kyoto Protocol (Nicholls 69). Over 160 countries are signatory to this protocol, indicating the level of seriousness that debate on global warming has also been discussed by various nations. These adaptation measures could be as simple as air-conditioning installation or as complex as the implementation of key infrastructure projects. Such would include for example having to resettle human and animal settlement in areas at risk of rising sea level. Considering that the effects of global warming are felt in every corner of the globe, there is a need to ensure that all nations are actively involved in the formulation and implementation of its mitigating policies.

Works Cited

IPCC. Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2007. Web.

Keith, David, Ha-Duong, Minh and Stolaroff, Joshuah. Climate Strategy with CO₂ Capture from the Air. Climatic Change, 74(2006): 17.

Nicholls, R. Coastal flooding and wetland in the 21^st century: changes under the SRES climate and social-economic scenarios. Global Environmental Change 14(2004):69

Rahmstorf, Stefan, Mann, Michael, Benestad, Rasmus, Schmidt, Gavin, and Connolley William Hurricanes and global warming-is there a connection? Real Climate. 2003. Web.

UNEP. Glacial lake outburst flood monitoring and early warning system. United Nations Environmental Programme. 2007. Web.