Abstract
This study aims at identifying the relationship between the changes in the population and the changes in the carbon dioxide emissions. In doing so, the researcher of this study has considered the data relating to the population and carbon dioxide emissions of six countries from 1960 to 2007. The six countries selected were categorized into three groups namely developed, developing and third world countries. The data collected has been statistically tested by the researcher by carrying out the regression analysis and correlation through the use of the statistical software – SPSS. The results revealed after the statistical analysis was performed that there is a negative relationship between the population increase and the emissions of carbon dioxide in the case of developed countries while on the other hand in the case of developing and third world countries the relationship was found positive.
Introduction
Background
While showing his concern over the increasing population of the world, Robert Engelman from Population Action International said, “Trends such as the loss of half of the planet’s forests, the depletion of most of its major fisheries, and the alteration of its atmosphere and climate are closely related to the fact that human population expanded from mere millions in prehistoric times to over six billion today” (Nantez 2010).
Increase in the size of the population worldwide influences the environmental issues in a number of ways. Changes in the population levels affect the trends and patterns of consumption behaviours in a society, the technological advancements, the overall economic, and the political scenario, and all these factors then collectively pose an impact on the environment (Nagdev 2002). The last century witnessed a huge increase in the population of the whole world due to the developments in the health care sector and increased productivity through efficient ways offered by the “Green Revolution”. After reaching the highest population growth rate of 2.20 percent in the early 60s, the worldwide population growth rate started to decline. But the decline did not mean that the population stopped to increase further. Apart from the slower growth rate of population, every year 80 million human beings are added to the total of the world’s population and today the total population of the planet earth is close to 7 billion.
It is estimated that the total world population will reach 9 billion by the year 2050 (About 2011, Engelman 1999). There is a consensus among the environmental experts that most of the climatic changes and other environmental issues are being caused by the increase in population, primarily due to the reason that the needs and demands of the rising population increase with time and as a result increase in the industrial activities, increased fuel consumption, etc. cause the environmental quality to depreciate (Knight 2011). Furthermore, there is a serious imbalance in worldwide population to resource consumption patterns. As for instance, USA’s total population is estimated to be 4% of the whole world’s population, but at the same time the consumption of the resources by USA’s population amounts to 25% of the resources available globally. This imbalance in the consumption patterns has a large contributing share in the environmental deterioration as well; because high level of consumption means that the usage of resources, particularly energy resources, is bound to increase and thus the collateral deterioration of the climate in the region due to unwanted CO2 (Carbon Dioxide) and GHG (Greenhouse Gases) emissions and other wastes is imminent (About 2011).
Conventionally, the increased consumption of energy is regarded as the primary reason for the increase in COÂ2 emissions. There are many studies conducted in the recent past which concluded that the increased rate at which population is increasing worldwide is a major contributing factor towards an increased rate of CO2 emissions (Shi 2001). As for example, in the year 2006, the industrial countries which made up about 20% of the total population of the world had an overall CO2 emissions contribution of about 40% globally and were held responsible for burning up the fossil fuels and adding 60% of the CO2 to the climate since the “Industrial Revolution”. However, after 2006, things started to change at a rapid pace. China in particular is now being considered as one of the highest CO2 emitting state in the world, with an annual increase of 10% of CO2 emissions. This rate of comes out to be 10 times higher than the average emissions by the industrial countries all around the world (Gardner and Prugh 2008).
Research Aim
The background information presented signifies that the impact of increase in population on the environment is not same everywhere in the world. Since there are varying trends in the population growth and consumption patterns in different parts of the world and consequently, varying degrees of the environmental deterioration, therefore this study aims at finding out the impact of population growth on the environment through the CO2 emissions in various parts of the world. In a broader sense, the aim of this research is to present an analysis of how population growth is related to the increased CO2 emissions and in order to fulfil this aim, the researcher takes into consideration the population and CO2 emission data for six different countries which belong to the developed, developing and third world countries categories. The selection of the countries of different economic standing is aimed at presenting a more generalized view as to how the environment is affected by the increase in the population.
Research Objectives
Keeping in view the research aim of this study, the research objectives can be listed as below:
Primary Objective
The primary objective of this research work is to find out the impact of the increase in population on the environment.
Secondary Objectives
The secondary objectives of this study are to find out what are:
- The impact of the increase in population and its effects on the environment in developed countries;
- The impact of the increase in population and its effects on the environment in developing countries; and
- The impact of the increase in population and its effects on the environment in third world countries.
Research Questions
In light of the aim of this study and the research objectives, following are the research questions set out for this research work:
- What is the impact of the increase in population on the environment due to carbon dioxide emissions in developed countries?
- What is the impact of the increase in population on the environment due to carbon dioxide emissions in developing countries?
- What is the impact of the increase in population on the environment due to carbon dioxide emissions in third world or under developed countries?
Limitations
There are certain limitations under which this study is being conducted. The limitations faced by the researcher in this study are as follows:
- The data, on the basis of which the relationship between the population increased and the impact on the environment is analyzed, is not available for the years 2008, 2009 and 2010 from the sources accessible to the researcher. Therefore, the researcher has considered the available data up to the year 2007 for all the countries for this study.
- There are various measures of CO2 emissions. In this study, the tons per person of CO2 emissions are considered for the purposes of the data analysis.
- The present study does not consider factors other than the population growth as a reason for the increase in CO2 emissions.
- The data which is put under statistical testing is obtained from a single source for all the countries. Although the source for data is considered reliable, but the corroboration of the given figures is not possible for the whole period of time under consideration.
Ethical Considerations and Disclaimer
This study is carried out while taking into account the ethical considerations related to the usage of data obtained through the secondary sources. The data which has been gathered from secondary sources is being used in this research work with an intention to achieve the aim and objectives of this study. Moreover, the researcher has given due consideration to the issues relating to copyright and plagiarism. In addition, the findings of this research work which have been included in this study are solely based on the abilities and skills of the author of this report and therefore, it is hereby declared that the author of this research work will not assume any responsibility whatsoever for any consequences resulting from a decision or action which is taken by the reader of this report based on the findings or conclusions reached hereinafter. Furthermore, any loss resulting to any third party while considering the conclusion of this report shall also not hold the researcher of this study liable. Apart from this, a copy or reprint of this report shall not be made without obtaining the express consent of the author of this report.
Literature Review
Introduction
This chapter focuses on reviewing the existing literature which includes relevant theories and past research works carried out in relation to the impact of population growth on the environment. In light of these theories and past studies and based on the findings of the current research work, the researcher aims at achieving the objectives set out in this research report. The chapter is divided into two major sections, namely the Theoretical Framework and Conceptual Framework. The first portion of the chapter includes a review of theories relating to the subject. The second section of this chapter includes the review of the conclusions reached in the studies conducted in the past by various researchers.
Theoretical Framework
Historically, the relationship between the population growth and its effect on the environment and the available natural resources has been studied frequently. In this respect, Robert Malthus (1798) is considered as the major contributor and the one who initiated the still existing debate as to the relationship between the population and the resources and environment. Therefore, the starting point of this theoretical framework is ideally the work of Malthus (1798).
Malthus Theory: Thomas Robert Malthus (1798)
The basis of the theory presented by Malthus (1798) is laid down on two presuppositions which are considered by him as constant; the fact assumptions include food and the desire between the two genders for existence by way of increase in population (Becker 1960). According to Malthus (1798), the population of the world increases at a rate which is much more fast than the increase in the resources which are meant to help maintain life. As a result, when there are no measures taken for controlling the population growth, the available resources will have to be shared among a larger population bunch. The measures for controlling the population growth at a rapid pace suggested by Malthus (1798) are voluntary rather compulsory. He stated suggested that before marrying people shall make some decisions as to what their plans are in relation to the quality and standard of life they wish to live with. In his view, these are termed as the “positive checks” and if these are not abide by the people, than there will be an automatic adjustment of the natural balance of the population and resources by means of wars, natural calamities, disease spread, etc.
Ester Boserup’s Theory (1965)
The views presented by Malthus (1798) are still regarded as relevant today. However, there has been criticism on the work of Malthus and alternate theories have been developed. A contrary theory given by Ester Boserup (1965) gained fame (Marquette 1997, Lee 1986). Boserup (1965) argued that population was not a dependent variable; instead growth in population itself determines the level of consumption of resources and agricultural and technological advancements (Boserup 1965). Upon these foundations, increase in population can be related to the increase in environmental degradation. Arguing against the concepts of Malthus (1798), Boserup (1981) proposed that,
“It is generally agreed that successive change in technology has an important influence on population size… The opposite side of the interrelationship, the influence of population size on technology, has attracted less attention” (Boserup 1981)
While comparing the relationships identified between population growth and changes in the environmental conditions by Malthus (1798) and Boserup (1965), following diagram illustrates the two concepts:
The Four Theories of Population and the Environment: Carole Jolly (1994)
On the other hand, the “Four Theories of Population Change and the Environment” is worth considering, in order to developing an understanding as to the theoretical developments relating to the interaction between population increase and the resulting change in environment. This theory or set of theories was presented by Carole Jolly (1994). In her work, Jolly (1994) categorized four different theories relating to population growth and the environmental changes.
The first of the four theories is based on the neo-classical economics, Ester Boserup is regarded as the originator of this idea, according to which it is argued that stabilized economies in the world can adjust their progress rate with the changes or increase in the population by means of introducing changes through substitutions and technological developments. The deterioration of the environment is therefore a short term problem (Jolly 1994). In other words, the theory states that the growth in population is itself a neutral factor, which suggests that the increase in population has no effect on the environment. The only exception where population may be reason for the environmental deterioration is when the economic conditions are not favourable (Jolly 2007).
After the neo-classical economics school of thought, Jolly (1994) takes into account the classical economics point of view in this respect. The classical economics point of view is mostly based on the approach of Malthus (1798). According to the classical economists, the growth in population acts as an independent factor which ultimately deteriorates the environmental conditions. The increase in population is seen as increasing the usage of available natural resources and other resources with the objective to satiate the demands of the growing population or to improve further the styles of living of the people. In consequence to this increased utilization of resources and the drive for the improved standard of living, the environment is affected (Jolly 1994). In addition to this, the researchers have also concluded that people posses some inherent characteristics which ultimately lead to unstoppable use of natural resources and henceforth result in the decrease of the quality of environment in which they survive (Fowler and Hobbs 2003). These propositions can also be generalized and accepted while keeping in view the aftermaths of the industrial revolution.
In contrast to the theoretical frameworks discussed above, the third theoretical point of view which addresses the relationship between the increase in population and the environmental changes includes social systems and structures. Those researchers and scientists who are considered as the proponents of this point of view regard poverty to be the primary reason behind the increase in population and its adverse impacts on the environment. According to them, the degradation of environment and climate is not solely occurring due to increase in the population, in other words there is no action and reaction thing prevailing between the population increase and the environmental deterioration. There is a much deeper issue than the mere increase in population; the unequal distribution of wealth and the resources are regarded as the reasons which give rise to the increase in population and deterioration of environment (Jolly 1994). Of all the proponents of this theoretical framework, the one who remained in the limelight is Betsy Hartmann. Hartmann argued that it is unfair to believe or propagate that the poor segments of the society as the ones responsible for the deterioration of the environment (Hartmann 2010). In her article “The Greening of Hate: An Environmentalist’s Essay”, she wrote the following lines against those who believe that the poor people are responsible for the degradation of the environmental quality:
“In many ways, this focus on population control threw the American environmental movement off track. By shifting the blame elsewhere, to the proverbial dark-skinned Other, it prevented many Americans from taking a deeper look at their own role, and the role of the U.S. government and corporations, in causing environmental degradation at home and abroad. It distorted family planning policy as the provision of birth control became a coercive tool in the war on population growth, rather than a means to improve women’s health and choices. It alienated people of colour and immigrants from the environmental movement and left the door wide open to the greening of hate” (Hartmann 2010).
The fourth and the last theoretical assertion, which is seen as the most popular one, takes into account population as a contributing factor in the environmental deterioration. However, the theory in this respect clarifies that the role of increase in population in affecting the environmental conditions is not the primary but in fact it has an intermediary role in this respect (Jolly 1994). In other words, there are other factors which together with the population increase affect the environmental quality. These factors include the behaviour of the people, likes and dislikes, consumption trends, technological advancements, cultural norms, governmental policies, poverty, and the demand for available natural resources (Jolly 1994).
The Environmental Kuznets Curve: Simon Kuznets (1955)
The environmental Kuznets curve is actually a hypothetical relation between different factors which are considered to be deteriorating the environment and the income levels of the people. According to the theoretical work of Kuznets (1955), when a country is in its initial stages economic development, the environmental degradation is on a higher side (Perman and Stern 2003). However, when the economic development of that country reaches a particular level, i.e. a stable level of income, the environmental degradation starts decreasing which suggests that once the higher level of income is reached in an economy, the degradation of the environment will on its own start decreasing with time (Brock and Taylor 2005). This idea is depicted in a U shaped curve on a graph where the environmental deterioration is shown as a function of the level of income in a particular country (Stern 2003). Following is the diagram of the Kuznets curve.
Conceptual Framework
There have been various researches carried out in the past, which specifically addressed the relationship between the increase in the population worldwide and the environmental deterioration. In this section of the chapter, a conceptual framework is being presented while taking into account the past studies conducted and the conclusions reached in those studies.
The foremost study which is considered in this conceptual framework is the work of Anqing Shi (2001). In his work, “Population Growth and Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions”, used the data pertaining to 93 nations relating to a period of 22 years i.e. 1975 to 1996. The study aimed at identifying two relationships; the relationship between the growth in population and the carbon dioxide emissions globally and the impact of the increase in income levels on the carbon dioxide emissions (Shi 2001). The study of Shi (2001) revealed the following results:
- The growth in population has been concluded as a significant factor in increasing the emissions of carbon dioxide all over the world since the last 20 years. Furthermore, it is expected that approximately 50 percent of the increment in the emissions of carbon dioxide up to the year 2025 will be solely contributed by the increase in the worldwide population in the future; and
- The increase in the levels of income also acts as a major factor in increasing the carbon dioxide emissions worldwide (Shi 2001).
Apart from this, Ehrlich (1968) and Holder and Ehrlich (1990) aimed at relating the affects of growth in population on the environmental conditions. This relationship was developed through an equation in which the environmental deterioration was related to the size of the population, the abundance of resources “affluence” and the impact on environment per unit of economic activity taking place, which is termed as “IPAT”. This equation experienced huge criticism from Bernstam (1991) and Dietz and Rosa (1994) (Shi 2001). The major problem associated with the equation is that there is only a definitional relationship between the components of the equation and as a result the equation cannot be used while carrying out hypotheses testing relating to the forces which impact the environmental conditions. However, the equation is useful as a framework while analyzing the “Anthropogenic Environmental Change” and specifically the affects of population increase, affluence and technological advancements on the environmental conditions (Shi 2001).
David Knight (2011) studied the relationship between the increasing population of the world and its impact on the carbon dioxide emissions in his work “How are rising carbon dioxide emissions linked to a rising world population?” In his work, Knight (2011) discussed the effects of the rate at which world’s population is increasing, the size of the population and wealth on the usage of energy, GHG (Greenhouse Gases) emissions and the effects on the overall environmental conditions. The research work of Knight (2011) was mainly aimed at addressing the question “How does population growth influence GHG, emission rates, cumulative emissions and environmental impact?” (Knight, How are rising CO2 emissions linked to a rising world population? 2011)The study concluded with the following results:
- The deterioration of the environment is not the result of increase in population, particularly in case of countries which are characterized as low level income and high rates of birth (Knight, How are rising CO2 emissions linked to a rising world population? 2011).
- The economic development due to lower prices of fuel and the facilitation by the governments around the world for the industrial development is the primary factor in increasing the Greenhouse Gases emissions and the deterioration of ozone layer (Knight, How are rising CO2 emissions linked to a rising world population? 2011).
- When a country is going through the phase of economic development, there is an inherent ignorance towards decreasing the carbon dioxide emissions (Knight, How are rising CO2 emissions linked to a rising world population? 2011).
- The development of policies, aimed at controlling the population in less developed countries, is not expected to yield favourable results in relation to the decrease in carbon dioxide emissions (Knight, How are rising CO2 emissions linked to a rising world population? 2011).
- The development of policies for reducing population in developed and developing countries are expected to produce favourable results but not at a rapid pace. Therefore, this tool shall not be regarded as the best option at limiting the carbon dioxide emissions (Knight 2011).
- The conclusion of the study does not coincide with the propositions in Kuznets theory, which states that the growth and development in a country will ultimately result in reduced carbon dioxide emissions (Knight 2011).
Summary
This chapter takes into account the theoretical work performed in relation to the effects of population on the environmental conditions. The theories are reviewed under the section “Theoretical Background”. In this chapter the theories discussed and reviewed are the Malthus’ Theory (1798), Boserup’s Theory (1965), the four theories of population and the environment presented by Carole Jolly (1994) and Kuznets theory. The theoretical framework provides an insight into the theoretical developments regarding the population growth and its impact on the quality of environment. There are various points of views regarding the relationship between the two variables. Apart from this, the chapter also presents a conceptual framework which includes the review of the conclusions reached in the past on the same subject. The studies which are reviewed under this chapter include the research works of Anqing Shi (2001), Ehrlich (1968) and Holder and Ehrlich (1974) and David Knight (2011). These studies also present differing points of views which are deemed helpful in discussing and relating the outcomes of this research work in the later parts of the study.
Research Methodology
Introduction
This chapter discusses the research methodology being adopted in this study and the reasons for doing so. In order to identify a relationship between the increase in population and its impact on the environment, the researcher has adopted the most relevant methodology. Apart from the fact of being relevant, the adopted research methodology has its own limitations. This chapter also aims at explaining how the analysis is carried out in this study and the data sources considered for the purposes of the analysis. Moreover, the chapter also sets the hypothesis to be validated in this study.
Research Methodology and Justification
The research methodology being followed in this study is of quantitative nature which aims at identifying the variables and then finding out the relationship between those identified variables. The basis for following a quantitative approach in this study is that it suits the desired analysis in this study and it also enables the classification of data collected from various sources and presents them in a manner which is meaningful and understandable. According to Saunders et al. (2007), quantitative research methodology allows the execution of statistical testing of the data collected by the researcher in such a manner that the analysis results in an outcome which is meaningful, easily comprehendible and reliable and serves to achieve the objective of the research (Saunders 2007). Moreover, keeping in view the main objective of this study, i.e. the identification of any relationship between the increase in population and the environmental changes, it is expected that the adopted methodology in this study will be useful in finding out the relationship. The approach set in this research work is deductive in its nature which aims at testing the findings of this study with the literature existing (Cohen 2003). For this purpose, the researcher has considered population growth since 1960 to 2007 of the countries selected as an independent variable and the carbon dioxide emissions in those countries for the similar period as dependent variables.
Establishing Regression Equation and Hypotheses
After considering the studies conducted in the past by different researchers and keeping in view the research questions established earlier in this report, this section establishes the hypotheses for this study which are tested after analyzing the relationship between increase in population and the carbon dioxide emissions. As discussed earlier, this study aims at identifying the relationship between the change in population and its effects on environment in terms of carbon dioxide emissions. This relationship is identified through statistical testing by means of regressions analysis and correlation. While conducting the regression analysis to establish a relationship between the identified independent and dependent variables, regression equations are required (Bordens and Abbott 2005). These regression equations are used setting up the hypotheses for this study.
The first regression equation to be used during the statistical testing of dependent and independent variables is in the following form:
Increase in Population= b0 + b1 * Carbon Dioxide Emissions
b0: Y-Intercept
b1: Coefficient of Slope
Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Change in the emissions of carbon dioxide (thousand metric tons)
Hypothesis
Keeping in view the above mentioned regression equations, the following can be hypothesized:
H1: Increase in population increases the carbon dioxide emissions
The validity of this hypothesis depends on the outcomes of the analysis carried out in the next chapter.
Data Sources
The data used while analyzing the relationship between the identified variables is being collected from a single source. Although the source for data is considered reliable but the corroboration of the given figures is not possible for the whole period of time under consideration due to the reason that the data of similar type and for the same period of time cannot be collected from other sources due to non-availability. Moreover, the data collected on the basis of which the relationship between the population increased and the impact on the environment is analyzed, is not available for the years 2008, 2009 and 2010. Therefore, the researcher has considered the available data up to the year 2007 for all the countries being considered in this study.
The data used in this report has been collected from the following sources:
- http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL (The World Bank 2007)
- http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.GHGO.KT.CE (The World Bank 2007)
Procedure for Data Analysis
The hypothesis set above are tested out in this research work by collecting data for the variables identified, both dependent and independent and a statistical analysis is carried out to find out the effects of increase in population (independent variable) on the carbon dioxide emissions (dependent variable). The data being collected for this analysis pertains to three categories of countries around the world, namely developed countries, developing countries and third world countries. In total there are six countries categorized as follows:
Table 1: List of countries selected.
In order to carry out the statistical testing of the two identified variables with respect to these countries, the researcher has obtained the data related to the trends of increase in population from the year 1960 to 2007. Moreover, data pertaining to carbon dioxide emissions in these countries has also been collected for the same period of time. The data collected is then analyzed through statistical techniques using the software application SPSS “Statistical Package for the Social Sciences”. The statistical testing includes the regression analysis and the correlation of the data being selected which in turn helps in identifying the relationship between the dependent and independent variables.
Summary
This chapter explained the research methodology to be adopted in this study. The chapter discussed the adopted methodology, which is a quantitative approach, together with the reasons for adopting it. Apart from this, the chapter also established the regression equation and the hypothesis for this study which is tested on the basis of the outcomes of the analysis in the next chapter. Furthermore, the chapter also discussed the sources used for collecting the data for the purposes of statistical analysis, the period to which data relates and to what countries the data pertains. In addition, the chapter discussed the procedures or techniques that are utilized in conducting the analysis on the data collected in this study, which is the statistical techniques including regression analysis and correlation technique aimed at identifying the relationship between the two identified variables.
Findings and Discussion
Introduction
This chapter takes into account the findings of this research work regarding the relationship between the increase in population (independent variable) and its impact on the environment due to the increased emissions of carbon dioxide (dependent variable). The chapter focuses on finding out this relationship between the independent and dependent variables by means of applying the statistical techniques which include regression analysis and correlation. In addition to this, the findings resulting from the statistical testing of the data collected are discussed in detail in light of the research objectives and questions set earlier in this report. The findings and discussion presented in this chapter serve as the basis for accepting or rejecting the hypothesis set in the last chapter.
Findings
In order to find out the relationship between the two identified dependent and independent variables, the researcher makes use of the statistical techniques. While carrying out the regression analysis and correlation of the data relating to the period 1960 to 2007 pertaining to the six different countries selected in this study, following are the results of the statistical techniques applied:
Table 2: Regression statistics for developed countries (United Kingdom and France).
The value of R Square as stated above shows that the model explains the observed variations in a more than satisfactory way. Furthermore, results of the statistical analysis are shown in the tabular form in Appendix – 1. The regression equation takes the following form after considering the statistical results with respect to developed countries:
y = 168.2 – 8.8428x
Table 3: Regression statistics for developing countries (China and India).
The value of R Square as stated above shows that the model explains the observed variations in a satisfactory way. Detailed results of the statistical analysis are shown in tabular form in Appendix – 2. The regression equation takes the following form after considering the statistical results with respect to developing countries:
y = – 55.443 + 2.7602x
Table 4: Regression statistics for third world countries (Afghanistan and Somalia).
The value of R Square as stated above shows that the model explains the observed variations in a less satisfactory way. Further results of the statistical analysis are shown in the tabular form in Appendix – 3. The regression equation takes the following form after considering the statistical results with respect to third world countries:
y = – 0.1513 + 0.0148x
Other than the results obtained from regression analysis, the descriptive analysis results and the results of correlation performed for all of the three identified categories of the countries are presented in the following table:
Developed Countries
Developing Countries
Third World Countries
Table 5: Descriptive Analysis and Correlation Results.
Discussion of the findings
The statistical results revealed above show that the relationship between the increase in population and the carbon dioxide emissions exists. However, the nature of this relationship varies depending upon the economic standing of a country. This discussion takes into account the statistical findings related to the data collected for each category of countries identified in this study on an individual basis. The findings mentioned above show that there is a relationship between the increase in the population and the environmental deterioration from carbon dioxide emissions. The relationship is positive in case of developing and third world countries and it is negative in case of developed countries. The detailed discussion for each category of countries is presented below:
Developed Countries
The data used in the analysis of the developed countries comprised of the increase in population year to year and carbon dioxide emissions related to the United Kingdom and France. The statistical results revealed that the relationship between the independent (population growth) and dependent (carbon dioxide emissions) variables exist. However, the nature of this relationship is negative, i.e. the nature of relationship between increase in population and the emissions of carbon dioxide is an inversely proportional relation. The surety with which this relationship can be justified comes from the convincing value of the R square, which comes out to be 0.72, which shows that the model is efficient enough in explaining the observed variations in the two variables. The negative relationship in case of developed countries can also be justified by observing the scatter plot diagram given below:
As can be seen in the diagram above, there is a negative slope shown in the graphical depiction of the statistical results for developed countries. In light of these findings, it is possible to answer the first research question, which follows as, “What is the impact of increase in population on the environment due to carbon dioxide emissions in developed countries?” The review of the theories and studies conducted in the past presented in the chapter “literature review” is suggestive of the fact that there are differing views as to the relationship between the increase in population and the deterioration of environment due to carbon dioxide emissions. The results in this study for the developed countries coincide with the proposition of Kuznets (1955) in his famous environmental curve. Kuznets (1955) believed that the environmental degradation is closely related to the increase in the population size of a particular country.
However, the nature of the relationship between the two variables changes over time, i.e. when a country is in its initial stages of its development, the increase in population affects the environmental conditions due to the increased economic activity taking place driven by expanding population size. But once the economic stability is attained, the environmental deterioration starts decreasing, which is the case of the developed countries. Keeping the concepts presented in this theory in mind and the findings related to the developed countries, it seems logical to believe that the economically stabilized countries have sufficient financial and technical resources and are more able to devote their attention towards creating a better environment quality. Therefore, by way of innovative techniques and advancements in technology they are able to control the impact of population on the environment. The other way through which environmental deterioration is controlled is addressing the cause. This means that the developed countries are able to carry out family planning programs which help in limiting the pace at which population is growing.
Developing Countries
The data used in the analysis of the developing countries comprised of the population and carbon dioxide emissions related to the two countries namely China and India. The statistical results revealed that the relationship between the independent (population) and dependent (carbon dioxide emissions) variables exist. However, the nature of this relationship is positive, i.e. the nature of relationship between increase in population and the emissions of carbon dioxide is a directly proportional relation. The surety with which this relationship can be justified comes from the convincing value of the R square, which comes out to be 0.67, which shows that the model is able to explain the observed variations in the two variables. The positive relationship in case of developing countries can also be justified by observing the scatter plot diagram given below:
The diagram presented above shows that the relationship between the increase in population and the emissions of carbon dioxide is directly proportional. This directly proportional relationship is further justified by the positive slope which suggests that with the increase in population, there is an increase in the emissions of carbon dioxide in case of developing countries. Considering these findings, it is possible to address the second research question set in this research work which is as follows, “What is the impact of increase in population on the environment due to carbon dioxide emissions in developing countries?” Considering the review of the theories and past research works in the literature review chapter, these results conform to the conclusions reached in the studies conducted by Anqing Shi (2001) and David Knight (2011). Shi (2001) concluded that when the levels of income of people residing in a country increase, there is an increase in the environmental issues, which includes the excessive emissions of carbon dioxide. This conclusion indirectly relates to the conclusion reached in this study with respect to the developing countries.
As for instance, it is a natural phenomenon that the per capita income of its residents rises steadily, when a country is under its development phase. Based on the findings of Shi (2001), this signifies that the developing countries have rising trend in relation to the carbon dioxide emissions. Therefore, the findings in relation to the developing countries are supported by the conclusion reached by Shi (2001). In addition to this, Knight (2011) in his study concluded two trends in this respect. Firstly, as concluded by him, the economic development due to lower prices of fuel and the facilitation by the governments around the world for the industrial development is the primary factor in increasing the Greenhouse Gases emissions and the deterioration of ozone layer. In light of this conclusion reached by Knight (2011), it can be stated that the class of countries being discussed in this section are under their development phase and it is due to this reason they are termed as the developing countries.
Therefore, the findings in this study are also justified on these bases in relation to the developing countries. Secondly, Knight (2011) concluded that when a country is going through the phase of its economic development, there is an inherent ignorance towards decreasing the carbon dioxide emissions. The findings of this study as mentioned earlier suggest that the emissions in developing countries are increasing year to year together with the increase in population. These findings are completely in agreement with the second conclusion of Knight (2011) as well. The tendency of the developing countries to ignore the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions is based on the fact that the economy as whole is dedicated to achieve advancement and stability and satiate the demands of the growing population with time and therefore less attention is paid to reduce the increasing environmental deterioration. Moreover, the findings also affirm the environmental curve of Kuznets (1955). Therefore, after corroborating the results of this study in relation to the developing countries to the results of the past studies, it is established that the increase in population and emissions of carbon dioxide are positively related.
Third World Countries
Lastly, the data used in the analysis of the third world countries comprised of the population and carbon dioxide emissions related to the two under developed countries namely Afghanistan and Somalia. The statistical results revealed that the relationship between the independent (population growth) and dependent (carbon dioxide emissions) variables exist. However, the nature of this relationship is positive, i.e. the nature of relationship between increase in population and the emissions of carbon dioxide is a directly proportional relation. The surety with whom this relationship can be justified is not as convincing as in case of the other previous two results. The value of the R square in case of third world countries comes out to be 0.035, which shows that the model is able to explain the observed variations in the two variables up to an extent of 35 percent approximately. However, the positive relationship in this case can be observed in the scatter plot diagram given below:
This graphical representation of the statistical findings in relation to the third world countries signify a positive relationship between the increase in population and the changes in the environment due to emissions of carbon dioxide. This relationship is justified on the basis that the graphical representation of the two identified variables shows a positive and rising slope for the third world countries. However, the increase in population is not as positively related to the emissions of carbon oxide as it is related in case of developing countries. The slope of the curve in case of developing countries is steeper than the slope for the curve shown in case of third world countries. In light of these findings, the third and final research question of this study can be addressed which is, “What is the impact of increase in population on the environment due to carbon dioxide emissions in third world or under developed countries?” The findings for the third world countries conform to the environmental curve of Kuznets (1955) in an indirect way.
According to Kuznets (1955), the effects on the environment due to increased population are most prevalent when the country is in its developing stages in terms of economy and subsequently decreases after the economic stability and development is achieved. Before the initiation of the economic development in a country, there are either low or no major economic activities taking place, as can be seen in the countries included in the third world category of this study, namely Afghanistan and Somalia. Due to the slowness in the economy, the emissions are also low as compared to the case of developing countries. However, the increase in population causes the environmental quality to deteriorate. Therefore, it is concluded with respect to the third world countries that the relationship between increase in population and changes in the environmental quality due to carbon dioxide emissions is positive but the responsiveness of the emissions of carbon dioxide to a change in the population is not of the same degree as it is in the case of developing countries.
Summary
This chapter presented the findings of the statistical testing carried out in order to find the relationship between increase in population and the changes in the environmental quality due to carbon dioxide emissions in case of developed, developing and third world countries. The findings of the statistical testing through regression analysis and correlation of the data collected revealed that there is a negative relationship between the increase in population and the carbon dioxide emissions in case of developed countries and there is a positive relationship in case of developing and third world countries. With the help of the findings in this chapter, the researcher has also developed the regression equations for each category of the countries being tested. After presenting the findings, the researcher has presented a detailed discussion of the findings with respect to each category of the countries and has also specifically answered the research questions set in this report earlier. The discussion also related the findings of this study to the theoretical and conceptual framework presented in the literature review. This discussion is expected to assist in accepting or rejecting the hypothesis set for this study.
Conclusion
This chapter presents concluding statements and a brief overview of the aim and objective of this research work, and an evaluation of whether or not the outcome desired by the author of this report has been achieved. Moreover, the chapter also presents a discussion of the findings of this research work and on the basis of this discussion the validity of the hypothesis set in this study is being tested against the findings for every category of country considered in this study.
An Overview of the Study
This study aimed at analyzing the relationship between the increase in population and the subsequent impact of it on the environmental deterioration due to increased carbon dioxide emissions. The researcher considered the data relating to population increase and carbon dioxide emissions of six countries from 1960 to 2007. The six countries selected were categorized into three categories, namely developed, developing and third world countries. The data collected has been statistically tested by the researcher by carrying out the regression analysis and correlation through the statistical software SPSS.
The results revealed after the statistical analysis was performed that there is a negative relationship between the population increase and the emissions of carbon dioxide in the case of developed countries while in the case of developing and third world countries the relationship was found positive. The discussion of the results explained these relationships in light of the theories and studies reviewed earlier in the literature review section of this report. It was found that the results of the statistical analysis in relation to all the three categories of the countries selected are in agreement to the conclusions reached in the studies conducted in the past, and also conform to the theoretical proposition presented by Kuznets (1955). Based upon the statistical results and the following up discussion, it is now possible to test the validity of the hypothesis set earlier in this report against each of the identified categories of the countries in this study.
Testing of Hypothesis
The hypothesis to be tested out in this report was set as follows:
H1: Increase in population growth increases the carbon dioxide emissions
In order to test the validity of this hypothesis, the findings and discussion are to be considered in relation to the identified categories of the countries. First of all, considering the results relating to the developed countries and the formulation of the regression equation, which revealed that the population growth is negatively related to the emissions of carbon dioxide, it can be said that the hypothesis does not hold true for the developed countries. Therefore, the hypothesis is rejected while considering the developed countries, and it can therefore be stated that the increase in population in the developed countries do not increase the emissions of carbon dioxide.
On the other hand, the results of the statistical analysis in relation to the developing countries revealed that the increase in population is positively related to the increase in carbon dioxide emissions in countries like China and India. Keeping in view these results, the hypothesis can be accepted in relation to the developing countries. Therefore, it is accepted that the increase in population in developing countries increase the emissions of carbon dioxide.
Similar to the findings in relation to developing countries, the relationship between the two identified variables in case of third world countries has also been regarded as positive. Therefore, these results also imply that the hypothesis holds true in case of third world countries. Therefore, it is accepted that the increase in the emissions of carbon dioxide is associated with the increase in population in the third world countries.
Recommendations for the Future Researchers
Keeping in view the limitations and results of this study, following are the recommendations suggested to the future researchers:
- The researchers in future shall take into account the data related to the population and carbon dioxide emissions of more countries. This will help in generalizing the results of the study on a larger sample of countries belonging to different categories. In addition, the researchers in future shall direct their efforts in collecting data which is up to date.
- While reviewing the past studies, it is suggested that the future studies shall consider factors other than population also, which are deemed to be affecting the environmental conditions.
- There shall be several sources of data collection which in turn enables the researcher to confirm that the data collected is authentic and reasonable.
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